Official: Zlatan Ibrahimović Thread II

Casualista · Apr 12, 2013

The draw plays its role but more or less you will get better and better teams as you go further in the competition.

The league is about the timing as well. It matters when you play your opponents. What patch of form you are in. Who are injured. Who is suspended. What is your squad depth. Whose ground its being played on. Who is the ref. Most of it is just chance. But over the course of 38 games it evens out.

In the end luck plays the same role in both and over the course of time decisions for and against even out.You just need to look at Juventus' scudetto run last year which had huge element of luck involved. Pretty much the same for Chelsea in UCL.

Dominate · Apr 12, 2013

Its more if you fuck up one game in CL its basically over

League is more of a marathon

UCL is a sprint

Borgaren · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
no domestic title will ever match up to what winning ucl means.

and as far as luck goes... there is as much luck involved in winning league as winning ucl.

I'm sorry, but how could you even say that?

Are you aware of how probability and expected results work, how variance can affect the results over a short period of time? Ever heard of variables, such as the draw?

No, there's not as much luck involved in winning the league as it is winning ucl. There's still luck in winning the league, I agree, but to say it's the same, now that's just stupid honestly.

Demonic · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
and as far as luck goes... there is as much luck involved in winning league as winning ucl.

MrKuuk · Apr 12, 2013

New rumours about Ibra going to Juventus... What do you guys think? Any truth to it? Juventus as they are now are imo inferior to PSG. It would be a bad move for Zlatan.

FredX · Apr 12, 2013

MrKuuk said:
New rumours about Ibra going to Juventus... What do you guys think? Any truth to it? Juventus as they are now are imo inferior to PSG. It would be a bad move for Zlatan.

It sounds like Juve are very serious about trying to get him.

For all the reasons in the world, it would be a BAD move.

Congo Powers · Apr 12, 2013

I can't see it happening

Borgaren · Apr 12, 2013

MrKuuk said:
New rumours about Ibra going to Juventus... What do you guys think? Any truth to it? Juventus as they are now are imo inferior to PSG. It would be a bad move for Zlatan.

I really hope he doesn't move to Juventus, seems like a terrible move. If all the big players stay in PSG, with a few recruits they're gonna be one of the favorites next year, if Ancelotti stays that is.

FredX · Apr 12, 2013

Azzurrii-08 · Apr 12, 2013

Didn't Ibra say he wouldn't return to any of his former clubs except Milan?

Congo Powers · Apr 12, 2013

What wages he gonna accept?

What about that Spanish guy juve got?

Nahhhhhh

Stay away from Italy zlatan

Stay awayyyyyyy

MrKuuk · Apr 12, 2013

FredX said:
It sounds like Juve are very serious about trying to get him.

For all the reasons in the world, it would be a BAD move.

Yeah, I agree - it would probably be a bad move for Ibra. However, they do have a pretty good team... if they really were to get Verratti, Ibra + another quality CF compatible with Ibra - then I think they could be a force in UCL next year.

Congo Powers said:
I can't see it happening

Ibra loves Italy and he´s not too happy living in Paris. I don´t know about this. I´d rather see him stay in PSG.

Sage · Apr 12, 2013

I think ladri are more likely to get lisandro lopez than ibra.

Shiby · Apr 12, 2013

In the end in 90% of cases (add Chelsea and Porto to that 10%)... the best team in Europe wins the CL. Talk about luck all you want but in the end the team that has the best combination of squad quality and coaching wins.

WC > EURO > CL ... and then everything else.

The best team in Europe wins CL.

Casualista · Apr 12, 2013

Borgaren said:
I'm sorry, but how could you even say that?

Are you aware of how probability and expected results work, how variance can affect the results over a short period of time? Ever heard of variables, such as the draw?

No, there's not as much luck involved in winning the league as it is winning ucl. There's still luck in winning the league, I agree, but to say it's the same, now that's just stupid honestly.

Ok..

Juventus won the league last year.

The difference between Milan and Juventus was 4 points.

So what caused the difference?

As far as teams go, man for man there was no difference in quality. We were probably better as well. The difference lied in the performance. And there was heavy element of luck involved influencing that:

1) Most obvious is the Muntari goal + Another goal similarly disallowed.
2) The first match milan played against them in Turin was 3 days after Milan had played a UCL match whereas juve had 1 week rest. Not to mention milan had a lot of injured players at the time. Timing worked in their favor.
3) Early season injury to Ibrahimovic. Robinho injured and Cassano with a freak condition which cost our best play maker. Half the squad (13 injuries?) by january.
4) Injury to Thiago Silva which arguably cost us the tie against Fiorentina and draw to bologna. So thats the best defender out.

I am highlighting these factors because they involved purely unluck for Milan and luck for juventus. Most of it involved timed related issues regarding injury and fixtures.
Now ofcourse, you can make a counter list of where Milan had some decisions in their favor (penalty against bologna?) but it wont match up to juve. Obviously there were pure performance based factors as well in which juve trumped us (like tactical setups) but luck played a huge role in their scudetto challenge.

============================================

Now as far as UCL there is no doubt that draws matter. But if you see the run of any team that won the champions league in past years you will more often then not find the fact that number of strong teams and number of weak teams you face evens out till you reach the final.

Of course as Frederik says "you can win it by beating Schalke, Porto, Basel and Chelsea." But this generally never happens. Mainly because most of those teams are out in the earlier stages and only the strongest teams face each other in latter stages.

badboybjörn · Apr 12, 2013

Please ibra dont go to juve, i beg you!

If you have to go somewhere go to city or something and shut up the english once n for all.

Fuck id hate it if he moved to juve tbh. Every goal would be joy and resentment at the same time!

badboybjörn · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
Ok..

Juventus won the league last year.

The difference between Milan and Juventus was 4 points.

So what caused the difference?

As far as teams go, man for man there was no difference in quality. We were probably better as well. The difference lied in the performance. And there was heavy element of luck involved influencing that:

1) Most obvious is the Muntari goal + Another goal similarly disallowed.
2) The first match milan played against them in Turin was 3 days after Milan had played a UCL match whereas juve had 1 week rest. Not to mention milan had a lot of injured players at the time. Timing worked in their favor.
3) Early season injury to Ibrahimovic. Robinho injured and Cassano with a freak condition which cost our best play maker. Half the squad (13 injuries?) by january.
4) Injury to Thiago Silva which arguably cost us the tie against Fiorentina and draw to bologna. So thats the best defender out.

I am highlighting these factors because they involved purely unluck for Milan and luck for juventus. Most of it involved timed related issues regarding injury and fixtures.
Now ofcourse, you can make a counter list of where Milan had some decisions in their favor (penalty against bologna?) but it wont match up to juve. Obviously there were pure performance based factors as well in which juve trumped us (like tactical setups) but luck played a huge role in their scudetto challenge.

============================================

Now as far as UCL there is no doubt that draws matter. But if you see the run of any team that won the champions league in past years you will more often then not find the fact that number of strong teams and number of weak teams you face evens out till you reach the final.

Of course as Frederik says "you can win it by beating Schalke, Porto, Basel and Chelsea." But this generally never happens. Mainly because most of those teams are out in the earlier stages and only the strongest teams face each other in latter stages.

I dont even believe that you believe that there is as much luck involved in winning the league as it is in winning cl.

Casualista · Apr 12, 2013

badboybjörn said:
I dont even believe that you believe that there is as much luck involved in winning the league as it is in winning cl.

No, i just like making long posts and then banning myself...

I perfectly believe that there is as much luck involved in winning the league as UCL. And that luck is something that gets evened out in both forms of the game.

Draws can help u get some distance in UCL (Schalke reaching semis) but draws will never help you win the champions league.

MrKuuk · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
No, i just like making long posts and then banning myself...

I perfectly believe that there is as much luck involved in winning the league as UCL. And that luck is something that gets evened out in both forms of the game.

Draws can help u get some distance in UCL (Schalke reaching semis) but draws will never help you win the champions league.

Of course there is luck involved in both. But they´re not comparable, not even Close! If you really believe that you´re just dumb.

Soldier_of_god · Apr 12, 2013

psg is > jube, i doubt he would got to jube, its a step down imo. if he plans on returning to italy, i believe milan is the only club he would be willing to join. if zlatan won us back to.back scudettos during his time here, i swear he will be amongst our long list of legendary players. but unfortunately jube had to bribe the refs in order to claim their first league title since 04.

Borgaren · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
Ok..

Good post. But as I said, there's still luck involved in winning the league, just not as much as winning the cl.

I don't see how it's not obvious for you to understand this though; playing more games over a longer period of time results in less luck of who the winner is in that competition.

Casualista · Apr 12, 2013

MrKuuk said:
Of course there is luck involved in both. But they´re not comparable, not even Close! If you really believe that you´re just dumb.

Why dont you make a substantial counter argument.

All i hear are draws. And I am pointing out that any team that has won UCL has not done it with easy draws.

And I am substantiating why league is also based on luck.

Casualista · Apr 12, 2013

Borgaren said:
Good post. But as I said, there's still luck involved in winning the league, just not as much as winning the cl.

I don't see how it's not obvious for you to understand this though; playing more games over a longer period of time results in less luck of who the winner is in that competition.

Yes the spread of luck is greater when there are more games.

But when the difference is 4 points (or even less) at the end of the league season it tells me that it was the incremental factors that mattered and individual decisions that mattered.

And again, as far as UCL goes it evens out. No team has won UCL on the back of easy draws (not saying its statistically impossible but it has never happened).

Congo Powers · Apr 12, 2013

Nba playoffs best of 7 game series ..4 rounds...the best team wins

League has what..32 rounds? 2 games per team?

CL has how many 'rounds' or total games played?

Borgaren · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
Yes the spread of luck is greater when there are more games.

But when the difference is 4 points (or even less) at the end of the league season it tells me that it was the incremental factors that mattered and individual decisions that mattered.

And again, as far as UCL goes it evens out. No team has won UCL on the back of easy draws (not saying its statistically impossible but it has never happened).

You're just looking at one league title now though, so saying that the league and UCL is the same from just that isn't really fair. I'm not arguing that there's not any luck involved by winning the league, but to say it's equal to winning UCL, that's what doesn't make any sense to me.

How do you know that no team has ever won because of easy draws? If team X would lose if they met team A, but win if they met team B, and gets drawn against team B, and therefor qualifies to the next round because they faced a team that they could beat. While team A faces a team that they have trouble against, and doesn't qualify to the next round. Now, team A goes on and win UCL... You're saying this could never happened?

Casualista · Apr 12, 2013

Borgaren said:
You're just looking at one league title now though, so saying that the league and UCL is the same from just that isn't really fair. I'm not arguing that there's not any luck involved by winning the league, but to say it's equal to winning UCL, that's what doesn't make any sense to me.

How do you know that no team has ever won because of easy draws? If team X would lose if they met team A, but win if they met team B, and gets drawn against team B, and therefor qualifies to the next round because they faced a team that they could beat. While team A faces a team that they have trouble against, and doesn't qualify to the next round. Now, team A goes on and win UCL... You're saying this could never happened?

Sure, but i can apply those hypotheticals to the league as well. If X had played Y at this particular time when a certain player from Y was injured rather than play them in another time when he is in top form and becoming a game changer. And I can come up with many more permutations and combinations.
How many teams in the league right now want milan to play like they did in first 8 games? before we exploded? Those first 8 teams can feel lucky that they got us in the worst of times. Now considering that the race for UCL spots is so tight you can say that those timings will play a role in how things shape up.

As far as UCL goes we can never really know what would have happened if some other draws were made. What we can ask however, is the team that wins the final, did they beat strong teams on the way and do they deserve it. More often than not you will find the answer on the affirmative for both.

leaf · Apr 12, 2013

badboybjörn said:
Please ibra dont go to juve, i beg you!

If you have to go somewhere go to city or something and shut up the english once n for all.

Fuck id hate it if he moved to juve tbh. Every goal would be joy and resentment at the same time!

Yeah I think he'd do well in England. Ibra could return Arsenal to the top again :cool:

Ibra+Walcott = :eek:

FredX · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
1) Most obvious is the Muntari goal + Another goal similarly disallowed....

The difference is that the league is played over 38 games. Against 19 teams with several months between home and away games. 57 hours. Bad luck and stuff like the Muntari goal usually even out over a season. You get some bad ref decisions against you and some in your favor. But fans only remember the bad ones.

Casualista · Apr 12, 2013

I just pointed that whole scenario out in my post if you bothered reading it.

And I also pointed out that easy draws and tough draws even out in UCL.

MrKuuk · Apr 12, 2013

Iscariot said:
Why dont you make a substantial counter argument.

All i hear are draws. And I am pointing out that any team that has won UCL has not done it with easy draws.

And I am substantiating why league is also based on luck.

You are right that there´s luck involved in winning the league title. The difference? Borgaren described it perfectly: "playing more games over a longer period of time results in less luck of who the winner is in that competition." I don´t think further explanation is necessary.

Official: Zlatan Ibrahimović Thread II

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