I see what you're saying, but I watched the maddening Fiorentina game and it was one of those things where resolute tactical organization frustrates a far superior team. I don't see Sousa and his team failing to breach them in Poland. Of course, strictly speaking from a results perspective, you're right. Fiorentina should have capitalized on their 4-0 drubbing of the Portuguese side, but I am still reasonably confident that they will win two of their remaining three games, and finish second.
Lazio are pretty much through. They are on 7 points, topping the group, and a win next matchday will pretty much get them there.
The one worry is Roma, but I think they will beat Leverkusen at home. They were superior to the German side in Germany notwithstanding the drama and the early sluggishness.
Liverpool have to travel to Russia and have so far looked like they don't want to be here, while Tottenham lost to Anderlecht and still have to play Monaco. I think the prem teams would absolutely hate it if they did qualify somehow. Pocchetino made it pretty clear that the EL is a nuisance last year, so it works to our advantage.
Bayern Munich, you feel, will beat Arsenal at home, and I hope Olympiacos gets a result against D. Zagreb. That would leave Arsenal rooted at the bottom with tenuous hope.
I do think Chelsea, Man U and City will probably make it. I hope they come in second though and draw tough opponents and get swept aside.
I am hopeful. I think Italian football can learn a lot from the Prem in glossy marketing and exaggerating a product's value, but as a philosophy, an expression of football, Italian football is superior to England's, and hopefully in the next 1-2 years we see that reflected in the rankings.