European Coefficients Watch feat. Dr Galliani & co dominating the corridors of power

necromancer · Nov 5, 2015

Arsenal could finish third, go to EL and end up making more points than Roma and Juve. That's why this system is pointless.

VultureSheva · Nov 5, 2015

Juve and Roma can qualify, but Roma can't stay in CL for long time. Juve maybe can reach quarter or semifinal. In Europa League, Napoli is potential team to win it, but Sevilla and Dortmund are not easy teams. Fiorentina is not doing well, I don't think they will continue, Lazio is ok.

Today Italy has 64.439 points, England 68.034. (5 seasons)
If we look for 4 seasons Italy has 53.082 and England 52.784. So if not this year, we can do it next year.

VultureSheva · Nov 5, 2015

necromancer said:
Arsenal could finish third, go to EL and end up making more points than Roma and Juve. That's why this system is pointless.

This is why I would have prefered Roma to end in EL.

necromancer · Nov 5, 2015

VultureSheva said:
This is why I would have prefered Roma to end in EL.

This is why I think coefficient following is a waste of time and well intentioned energy.

xerazon · Nov 5, 2015

that is not entirely true. you gain more points for reaching the CL top 16 then for reching EL top 16 I think. Since in the CL you get extra points for every round - something that you start only getting for reaching EL top 8 and so on i think.

necromancer · Nov 5, 2015

But for teams like Roma and Arsenal, it's much easier to rack up wins in EL latter stages than in CL knockouts.

xerazon · Nov 5, 2015

while in theory i agree with you tottaly, no denying that. i have to say that because teams like roma and arsenal like to choke big time - i don't think that has to be true.

I have this feel that a team like roma, can just lose to everybody for some reason. and because of that getting into the top 16 of CL maybe the better option (Coefficient Points wise) then going to EL and probably choking in the EL top 32, if you know what I mean?

They are bound to choke, and I'll take my chances with them in a CL top 16 - maybe they have a good run or draw an go somehow trough and reach even top 8. Then seeing them choke at an EL top 32 - and even if they get trough that one...in the next round their choking becomes more probably :fp:

necromancer · Nov 5, 2015

That's just hopeful reasoning.. Bundesliga got the third spot largely on the basis of relatively better UEFA Cup performances. If Serie A were to take it back, it will probably be the same way.

Hitman · Nov 5, 2015

nonsonoqui said:
So, as I said, I am fairly confident Roma and Juve will both qualify, and after today, it looks like Arsenal will probably not. On top of that we also directly took points off of the Bundesliga team (Bayer).

All in all a good CL round, even if Roma almost committed suicide yet again.

I don't share your optimism bro... Roma did self-destruct for a third time in the space of 180 minutes, their psychological issues in Europe will continue. It was the right call to get a pk + red card but they managed to get the 3 points and that's what matters. They have an away game to Barcelona next who hasn't qualified yet while Leverkusen will play away to BATE. Roma's biggest problem was losing to BATE, it's going to come back to haunt them. At the very best Roma will be able to get 3 points out of their next two games (away to Barca, home to BATE). Leverkusen will get 3 points at BATE and will play a second-string already qualified Barca side in the final game and can snatch a point from them if not even beat them as they're playing at home.

Juventus I was hoping they'd make it at first place, now I'm just hoping they'd qualify altogether... they do have Allegri afterall so they are already at a handicap :lol:

Viola and Lazio are desparate for wins this round, the need the 3 pts, Napoli are the only ones I feel confident about. Sarri has impressed but it remains to be seen how consistent they'll be throughout the season. If the three Italians get three wins tonight we will cut the difference between us and England by one full point, we will be getting closer to overtaking them this season.

necromancer said:
That's just hopeful reasoning.. Bundesliga got the third spot largely on the basis of relatively better UEFA Cup performances. If Serie A were to take it back, it will probably be the same way.

Hopefully they've learnt their lesson and when we get it back, we'll continue performing in the EL. I totally agree that the current points system is pointless. I honestly think the best thing they should do is scratch out the Europa League and combine it with the CL and have them play games from Tue-Thur. 6/7 teams can qualify to the competition from the top ranked countries. You think that'd be a good idea or would the Cl lose it's exclusivity?

Tadej · Nov 5, 2015

necromancer said:
Arsenal could finish third, go to EL and end up making more points than Roma and Juve. That's why this system is pointless.

No it isn't, Italian teams finally started care about EL because of that. Juve can do well in CL, while Roma need to go in EL, they really don't have a mentality and character for this tournament. Go neverkusen!

Roma, lazio, fiorentina and napoli should make the semifinals... at least. Not all ofc.

PL teams will underperforming in this tournament, because are way too busy with the best league on the world and their famous cups :lol:

I am optimistic.

necromancer · Nov 5, 2015

Hitman said:
Hopefully they've learnt their lesson and when we get it back, we'll continue performing in the EL. I totally agree that the current points system is pointless. I honestly think the best thing they should do is scratch out the Europa League and combine it with the CL and have them play games from Tue-Thur. 6/7 teams can qualify to the competition from the top ranked countries. You think that'd be a good idea or would the Cl lose it's exclusivity?

I dont think CL would lose anything from such a move. Totally in favour of it.

But hey, people have been cribbing about the coeff system for more than a decade now. What's the point.

milanicious · Nov 5, 2015

Even if Leverkusen defeated Bate and drew against Barca, all it takes for Roma to qualify is to beat Bate.

It is another story though if Barca gave up on their final match.

Charbel · Nov 5, 2015

necromancer said:
I dont think CL would lose anything from such a move. Totally in favour of it.

But hey, people have been cribbing about the coeff system for more than a decade now. What's the point.

Problem would be with the leagues. Much less competition in the upper part of the table between teams that are fighting for 3rd-4th-5th-etc.

Vms · Nov 5, 2015

So in this CL and EL round Italy got 1.5pts and England got 1.25 pts

Not bad :thumbsup:

OVUNQUE CON TE · Nov 5, 2015

Decent morning for us, Spurs losing would have been nice, And Klopp will want to win this trophy now, Wish BR was still there lol.

scarecrows · Nov 5, 2015

molto calcio today

Azzurrii-08 · Nov 6, 2015

From Football-Italia:

This week’s European results saw Serie A once again narrow the coefficient gap to the English Premier League.

The top three Leagues on UEFA’s coefficients get four places in the Champions League, while fourth-place, currently occupied by Italy, gets only three.

Serie A sides were undefeated in Europe this week, with Juventus drawing and Roma, Lazio, Fiorentina and Napoli all picking up wins.

English sides also performed well, with only Arsenal losing while Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur all won.

However, ranking points are divided by the number of teams entering Europe at the start of the season, with Serie A having six, and the Premier League having eight.

Southampton and West Ham United are already out of European competition, while only Sampdoria have been eliminated of the Italian teams.

That means that after this week’s results, there are currently 3.72 points between the Premier League and Serie A in the fight for third-place.

If the Italian coefficient can overtake the English one by the end of the season, Serie A will have four Champions League places for the 2017/18 season.

Serie A outperformed the Premier League by 5.429 points last season, with Juventus reaching the Champions League final, and Napoli and Fiorentina going to the semi-finals of the Europa League.

Even if Italian sides cannot overhaul their English counterparts this season, as things stand they would begin next season with a 0.17 point advantage.

This is because the coefficient is calculated over a five-year average, with the 2011/12 season dropping off once this campaign is completed.

In that season, England picked up 15.250 points, while Italy managed just 11.357.

Therefore, if Serie A can defend the coefficient place next season, Italy would receive four Champions League spots for 2018/19.

bacon d'or · Nov 6, 2015

meanwhile those russians have climbed to 6th place :balo:

nonsonoqui · Nov 6, 2015

Hitman said:
I don't share your optimism bro... Roma did self-destruct for a third time in the space of 180 minutes, their psychological issues in Europe will continue. It was the right call to get a pk + red card but they managed to get the 3 points and that's what matters. They have an away game to Barcelona next who hasn't qualified yet while Leverkusen will play away to BATE. Roma's biggest problem was losing to BATE, it's going to come back to haunt them. At the very best Roma will be able to get 3 points out of their next two games (away to Barca, home to BATE). Leverkusen will get 3 points at BATE and will play a second-string already qualified Barca side in the final game and can snatch a point from them if not even beat them as they're playing at home.

Juventus I was hoping they'd make it at first place, now I'm just hoping they'd qualify altogether... they do have Allegri afterall so they are already at a handicap Viola and Lazio are desparate for wins this round, the need the 3 pts, Napoli are the only ones I feel confident about. Sarri has impressed but it remains to be seen how consistent they'll be throughout the season. If the three Italians get three wins tonight we will cut the difference between us and England by one full point, we will be getting closer to overtaking them this season.

How do you feel now?

IMO, the qualification that is 50-50 is only Roma's. The rest will make it. I hope Napoli or Fiorentina draw an English side because I think, for example, Liverpool and Tottenham are very beatable in this competition.

xerazon · Nov 6, 2015

The sooner Napoli draws an english Team the better. :lol:

nonsonoqui · Nov 24, 2015

BATE hold Leverkusen in Belarus. Huge result for Roma.

It means Roma can potentially even qualify after a loss against Barca and a draw with BATE (assuming Barcelona take care of Leverkusen at home on the final matchday of this group).

A win against Barcelona or BATE now will guarantee qualification for Roma.

Tadej · Nov 24, 2015

Yeah huge result, but keep in mind that they are still roma and they can still lose against bate.

AC_Wesley · Nov 24, 2015

nonsonoqui said:
BATE hold Leverkusen in Belarus. Huge result for Roma.

It means Roma can potentially even qualify after a loss against Barca and a draw with BATE (assuming Barcelona take care of Leverkusen at home on the final matchday of this group).

A win against Barcelona or BATE now will guarantee qualification for Roma.

And after qualifying they can get defiled again.

Hitman · Nov 25, 2015

Matchday 5
Day 1:
England: 2 wins = 0.25 points
Italy: 1 loss = 0 pts

Day 2:
Juventus x Man City (city already qualified, Juve need to win to qualify for certain and would be wise to get top spot)
Man Utd x PSV

worst case scenario:
England: 2 wins = 0.25 pts
Italy: 1 loss = 0

Day 3:
Lazio - Dnipro (predict a draw.. any draw result would qualify Lazio directly)
Brugge - Napoli (loss... Napoli have already guaranteed top spot in their group, they'll rest their starters for sure... I do hope they can win though, we badly need the pts)
Basel - Fiorentina (decisive game, Viola lost at home to Basel and now must win to stand a chance of qualifying in the last game... big test of character. If they win this game, they can probably go far in the EL this year.. i predict a draw)

Qarabag - Tottenham (Spurs are top of the group, we need Qarabag to win 2-0 or 4-1 to leapfrog Spurs... I think Qarabag can win, but will assume a draw to Spurs for calculations)
Liverpool - Bordeaux (fresh from beating City 4-1, a win here would qualify them.. I predict a win)

Assuming worst case scenario:
Italy: 2 draws = 0.333 pts
England: 1 win + 1 draw = 0.375 pts

Forecasting the most realistic worst case scenario for this week means England will earn 0.875 and Italy will earn 0.333 pts... meaning that English will increase their advantage on Italy by 0.542 points.. a very bad step backwards for Italy after a relatively good start to Europe.

At the end of matchday 6, England will have 4 qualified teams to the knockout stages earning a total of 20/8= 2.5 bonus coefficients points and if Roma+Juve qualify we would make 10/6= 1.6667 bonus pts, so at the end of of the group stages England will extend their lead on Italy by another 0.8333 pts. If one English team fails to make it to the next round then England will gain an advantage of 0.2083 on Italy instead of the 0.8333 pts. That would be a big difference and could be decisive come the end of the season.

The most important games this week for the coefficient battle are:

Juve x City
Basel x Viola
Qarabag x Spurs
Utd x PSV (loss to utd would be amazing, even a draw would work as they have to travel away to Wolfsburg needing a win)
Liverpool - Bordeaux (a liverpool defeat would be very good... it'd mean they have to go play an away game at Sion (top of the group) needing a win... a draw wont be enough)

Matchday 6 will be very important for the battle... Arsenal x Olympiakos, Chelsea x Porto, Wolfsburg x Utd... all those three english teams will need results in the final day to qualify (if utd fail to beat PSV *fingers crossed*)... if 1 club doesn't make qualify it'll be a huge boost for Italy... if 2 clubs fail it'll be amazing. It would be even better if one of Liverpool + Spurs fail to qualify to the next round in the EL. Italy desperately needs Viola to make through the EL because they usually do well and gather a lot of points each season.

I really hope Juve beat City tonight. These results are very important for Italy and specifically Milan's future. If the Italians do well in Europe and surpass England this year, CL qualification next year will be slightly easier as Italy will send 4 teams instead of 3. That will be huge for the Italian clubs as the competition at the top is getting really, really tight.

General · Nov 25, 2015

Hitman said:
Matchday 5
Day 1:
England: 2 wins = 0.25 points
Italy: 1 loss = 0 pts

Day 2:
Juventus x Man City (city already qualified, Juve need to win to qualify for certain and would be wise to get top spot)
Man Utd x PSV

worst case scenario:
England: 2 wins = 0.25 pts
Italy: 1 loss = 0

Day 3:
Lazio - Dnipro (predict a draw.. any draw result would qualify Lazio directly)
Brugge - Napoli (loss... Napoli have already guaranteed top spot in their group, they'll rest their starters for sure... I do hope they can win though, we badly need the pts)
Basel - Fiorentina (decisive game, Viola lost at home to Basel and now must win to stand a chance of qualifying in the last game... big test of character. If they win this game, they can probably go far in the EL this year.. i predict a draw)

Qarabag - Tottenham (Spurs are top of the group, we need Qarabag to win 2-0 or 4-1 to leapfrog Spurs... I think Qarabag can win, but will assume a draw to Spurs for calculations)
Liverpool - Bordeaux (fresh from beating City 4-1, a win here would qualify them.. I predict a win)

Assuming worst case scenario:
Italy: 2 draws = 0.333 pts
England: 1 win + 1 draw = 0.375 pts

Forecasting the most realistic worst case scenario for this week means England will earn 0.875 and Italy will earn 0.333 pts... meaning that English will increase their advantage on Italy by 0.542 points.. a very bad step backwards for Italy after a relatively good start to Europe.

At the end of matchday 6, England will have 4 qualified teams to the knockout stages earning a total of 20/8= 2.5 bonus coefficients points and if Roma+Juve qualify we would make 10/6= 1.6667 bonus pts, so at the end of of the group stages England will extend their lead on Italy by another 0.8333 pts. If one English team fails to make it to the next round then England will gain an advantage of 0.2083 on Italy instead of the 0.8333 pts. That would be a big difference and could be decisive come the end of the season.

The most important games this week for the coefficient battle are:

Juve x City
Basel x Viola
Qarabag x Spurs
Utd x PSV (loss to utd would be amazing, even a draw would work as they have to travel away to Wolfsburg needing a win)
Liverpool - Bordeaux (a liverpool defeat would be very good... it'd mean they have to go play an away game at Sion (top of the group) needing a win... a draw wont be enough)

Matchday 6 will be very important for the battle... Arsenal x Olympiakos, Chelsea x Porto, Wolfsburg x Utd... all those three english teams will need results in the final day to qualify (if utd fail to beat PSV *fingers crossed*)... if 1 club doesn't make qualify it'll be a huge boost for Italy... if 2 clubs fail it'll be amazing. It would be even better if one of Liverpool + Spurs fail to qualify to the next round in the EL. Italy desperately needs Viola to make through the EL because they usually do well and gather a lot of points each season.

I really hope Juve beat City tonight. These results are very important for Italy and specifically Milan's future. If the Italians do well in Europe and surpass England this year, CL qualification next year will be slightly easier as Italy will send 4 teams instead of 3. That will be huge for the Italian clubs as the competition at the top is getting really, really tight.

Thank you for the effort in this post

Good job - I actually read all of it for once

dcfcfan1 · Nov 25, 2015

what happens if napoli or fiorientina won the eufa cup? will 7th place get EL?

Hitman · Nov 25, 2015

dcfcfan1 said:
what happens if napoli or fiorientina won the eufa cup? will 7th place get EL?

7th place will get EL only next season and only if Italian surpass England at the end of this year... right now the difference is around 3.5-4 coefficients points.

napoli/fiorentina winning the EL won't mean much if the other Italians in europe do bad. we need all of them to start racking up points and the english to drop points.

dcfcfan1 · Nov 25, 2015

Hitman said:
7th place will get EL only next season and only if Italian surpass England at the end of this year... right now the difference is around 3.5-4 coefficients points.

napoli/fiorentina winning the EL won't mean much if the other Italians in europe do bad. we need all of them to start racking up points and the english to drop points.

so that means 3rd place will get EL instead?

nonsonoqui · Nov 25, 2015

@Hitman

I know you don't share my optimism, but you must admit that yesterday's BATE result was huge, and now Roma have it all set up to make it into the next round.

I am still confident that the 4 Italian teams in European competition will qualify (Napoli already have).

But I would prefer victories obviously. I think we can reasonably expect/hope for Fio and Lazio winning their ties.

Hitman · Nov 25, 2015

dcfcfan1 said:
so that means 3rd place will get EL instead?

For Serie A as of today's coefficient points:

2015/2016 (this) season: 6 teams in Europe. 1st-3rd places go to CL. 4-6th go to EL.
2016/2017: same as above
2017/2018: 7 teams in Europe: 1-4th go to CL. 5-7th EL.

If Italy overtake England in the coefficients before this season ends:

2015/2016 (this) season: 6 teams in Europe. 1st-3rd places go to CL. 4-6th go to EL.
2016/2017: 7 teams in Europe: 1-4th go to CL. 5-7th EL.
2017/2018: same as as above

Coefficients as of today morning (25/11/2015):

1- Spain (92.142)
2- Germany (72.463)
3- England (69.659)
4- Italy (65.439)

These numbers are going to change after tonight and tomorrow's games in Europe and I'll post an update of the new scores. I hope this clarifies the issue? :cool:

nonsonoqui said:
@Hitman

I know you don't share my optimism, but you must admit that yesterday's BATE result was huge, and now Roma have it all set up to make it into the next round.

I am still confident that the 4 Italian teams in European competition will qualify (Napoli already have).

But I would prefer victories obviously. I think we can reasonably expect/hope for Fio and Lazio winning their ties.

No, I don't share your optimism because you thought 1 or 2 English teams were going to get knocked out and probably the 2 from Europa League as well. As of right now, all of the English teams are in very favourable positions to qualify. Even if Italians do very well in Europe, it would mean nothing if England continue doing just as good... the only way this will help Italy is if Italy continue doing well and England do really bad. The 5 Italian teams in Europe could very well qualify to the next round but the 6 English teams will as well it seems. Fiorentina and Lazio are very capable of qualifying but Italians in Europe have been abysmal for years (Fiorentina always have done reasonably well except this year though).

Roma just need to get equal points at home versus BATE to Leverkusen who will play at the Camp Nou... They should be okay. If Juventus lose at home tonight it will be extremely hard for them and they'll be under tremendous pressure to perform away to Seville in game 6. Fiorentina play away to Basel tonight, a loss could potentially eliminate them.

I don't understand why you're optimistic.

European Coefficients Watch feat. Dr Galliani & co dominating the corridors of power

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