AC Milan - Serie A 2020/21 Season

[Stitches]

A general thread. Hopefully first post updated with understat xG;

Milan - Bologna 2,94 - 0,83 (result 2-0)
Crotone - Milan 0.11 - 2.43 (result 0-2)
Milan - Spezia 2.65 - 0.15 (result 3-0)
inter - Milan 2.55 - 2.06 (result 1-2)
Milan - Roma 2.82 - 2.36 (3-3)
Udinese - Milan 0.96 - 1.02 (1-2)
Napoli - Milan 1.88 - 1.84 (1-3)
AC Milan - Fiorentina 2.86 - 0.60 (2-0)
Sampdoria - AC Milan 0.99 - 2.87 (1-2)
AC Milan - Parma Calcio 1913 1.85 - 0.60(2-2)
Genoa - AC Milan 1.23 - 2.05 (2-2)
Sassuolo - AC Milan 1.05 - 1.41 (1-2)
AC Milan - Lazio 1.88 - 1.46 (3-3)


... hopefully updated (probably sporadically)

What other general indicators to look? Discuss.

 

[mumbojumbo]

In order to be in top 4, we need to collect about 80 points and score about 80 goals.

Zlatan needs to score 20 goals
Rebic - 15 goals
Leao - 15 goals
Saelemaekers - 10 goals
Hakan - 10 goals

10 goals for the others.


How likely we will achieve these? I think we can with Zlatan around. The other players will be afraid not to give 100%. If Zlatan didn't renew, it would have been tough.

 

[jawz10]

Ibra - 21
Hakan - 14
Leao - 14
Rebic - 12
Diaz - 5
Samu - 5
Kessie - 5
Saelemakers - 4
Others - 10

Circa 85 goals total.

 

[Youth]

In order to be in top 4, we need to collect about 80 points and score about 80 goals.

Zlatan needs to score 20 goals
Rebic - 15 goals
Leao - 15 goals
Saelemaekers - 10 goals
Hakan - 10 goals

10 goals for the others.


How likely we will achieve these? I think we can with Zlatan around. The other players will be afraid not to give 100%. If Zlatan didn't renew, it would have been tough.

I just read an article from sM and got this facts from Pioli:

Pioli has been head coach of the Rossoneri for 41 games, winning 24 of them, drawing 11 and losing just six. Not only that, but Milan have scored 88 goals in that time and have conceded just 52, while averaging 2.02 points per game.

So we scored 88 goals from all games (all competitions) with average 2.02 points per game.

I think, it is not impossible to produce 80 goals from this team. To get 80 points it will be quite hard. With the average points of 2.02 and 38 Serie A games, maximum points are 76. However, the average points also count the first games under Pioli that could make the Italian coach lose his position due to bad results. So, our hope is still big to get that 80 points as long as the team could keep their form and the team stay healthy (starters are available to play).

One sector should be significantly improved according to the data given above is the conceded goals. Opponents made 52 goals from 41 games. It is averagely almost 1,3 goals per match. We started Serie A with zero conceded goals even though the opponents were still not strong enough but it should be a good start.

 

[mumbojumbo]

I just read an article from sM and got this facts from Pioli:



So we scored 88 goals from all games (all competitions) with average 2.02 points per game.

I think, it is not impossible to produce 80 goals from this team. To get 80 points it will be quite hard. With the average points of 2.02 and 38 Serie A games, maximum points are 76. However, the average points also count the first games under Pioli that could make the Italian coach lose his position due to bad results. So, our hope is still big to get that 80 points as long as the team could keep their form and the team stay healthy (starters are available to play).

One sector should be significantly improved according to the data given above is the conceded goals. Opponents made 52 goals from 41 games. It is averagely almost 1,3 goals per match. We started Serie A with zero conceded goals even though the opponents were still not strong enough but it should be a good start.

Thanks for the great insights.

I think this season is going to be very tight season for top 4. No team will be so dominant. Juve will not be. Pirlo doesn't know what formation he is going to use. He didn't get a normal pre-season. Rolando will bail the team on a couple occasions. So they will get more draws than past seasons.

Inter will be interesting to see. Their defense is weaker than other areas.

Atalanta is worrisome. Let's hope that other big teams (Lazio and Roma) and midtable teams give them issues. Since they press a lot, I wonder if other teams just simply play long ball to their strikers can beat Atalanta.

Anyway, the good thing is nobody thinks that AC Milan will do well this year. They will be in for a surprise... I hope so. Only we as a fan are more excited than we were before.
We have a young team and Zlatan. If we lose a game, we will not crumble mentally and ruin our subsequent games. Before Gattuso said that the team crumbled instantly when they faced initial difficulty. We will not have that for sure because the lion is here.

 

[Youth]

Thanks for the great insights.

I think this season is going to be very tight season for top 4. No team will be so dominant. Juve will not be. Pirlo doesn't know what formation he is going to use. He didn't get a normal pre-season. Rolando will bail the team on a couple occasions. So they will get more draws than past seasons.

Inter will be interesting to see. Their defense is weaker than other areas.

Atalanta is worrisome. Let's hope that other big teams (Lazio and Roma) and midtable teams give them issues. Since they press a lot, I wonder if other teams just simply play long ball to their strikers can beat Atalanta.

Anyway, the good thing is nobody thinks that AC Milan will do well this year. They will be in for a surprise... I hope so. Only we as a fan are more excited than we were before.
We have a young team and Zlatan. If we lose a game, we will not crumble mentally and ruin our subsequent games. Before Gattuso said that the team crumbled instantly when they faced initial difficulty. We will not have that for sure because the lion is here.

I also think Serie A now is more competitive compared to last season. Roma made additions to strength their team. However, I think the strong point of them is that Fonseca has been there for one season which mean there should not any need of adaptation for the team to understand what Fonseca wants. Napoli have similar advantage like Roma even bigger. Gattuso took the charge while Napoli faced bad series of results and he did not get pra-season. Although the preparation for all teams is not that long, at least Gattuso has time to prepare his team, not like previous season. Their additions are also quality. Omsihen and Bakayoko.

I am not sure about Lazio, they barely improved their team. However, Lazio are still Lazio the team that could make a surprise. I won't dare to ignore their potential to reach top four. Inter and Juve are stronger than the others. Maybe Juve are weaker than last season but still they have a much better starting eleven and depth compared to the rest of Serie A teams. Atalanta have been playing great football until now, they should be top 3 candidate.

Milan? Let our players have time. Our ultimate goal is to develop a strong team that can compete in all competition in the next couple of years. This will take time. I am not saying CL spot is not our goal but what the most important goal is the growth of the team with regard of both quality and wealth. We are not in zero year again, we are in developing phase.

 

[Stitches]

In order to be in top 4, we need to collect about 80 points and score about 80 goals.

How did you put the lines on 80? Isn't 80 points usual for second place? (which usually guarantees Cl too but ... )

And how did you come to 80 goals as well? Just random/very general or some sort of correlation?

If anyone has a study of league through times it would be very appreciated

 

[mumbojumbo]

How did you put the lines on 80? Isn't 80 points usual for second place? (which usually guarantees Cl too but ... )

And how did you come to 80 goals as well? Just random/very general or some sort of correlation?

If anyone has a study of league through times it would be very appreciated

i looked at the seasons from 2010 to last season. I took rough (very rough) average. Going conservative, I'd go with 80 points.

 

[Goodfella]

i looked at the seasons from 2010 to last season. I took rough (very rough) average. Going conservative, I'd go with 80 points.

Did you only count the Top 2 spots when Serie A only had 2 CL group-stage spots and 1 to the play-off round?

Atalanta and Lazio snatched the last 2 CL spots on 78 points last season.
That's the highest points tally I've ever seen for a 4th placed team in Serie A.

We made Top 3 with only 72 points in 2013.
Only 1 point away from Top 4 with 68 points in 2019

This could be the season where all the Top 4 reach 80 points though.
Atalanta has had a great start for once. Inter is likely to repeat last year's numbers. Napoli are much stronger than at the beginning of last season. Lazio will probably crash out of CL early and then go on a great run, as usual. And then there's Juve.

 

[mumbojumbo]

Did you only count the Top 2 spots when Serie A only had 2 CL group-stage spots and 1 to the play-off round?

Atalanta and Lazio snatched the last 2 CL spots on 78 points last season.
That's the highest points tally I've ever seen for a 4th placed team in Serie A.

We made Top 3 with only 72 points in 2013.
Only 1 point away from Top 4 with 68 points in 2019

This could be the season where all the Top 4 reach 80 points though.
Atalanta has had a great start for once. Inter is likely to repeat last year's numbers. Napoli are much stronger than at the beginning of last season. Lazio will probably crash out of CL early and then go on a great run, as usual. And then there's Juve.

You are correct to point out that it was possible to reach top four with below 80 points in the previous years. However, this year the competition is tough. You just need to be conservative with the projection to allow margin of errors.

 

[Stitches]

inter - Milan 2.55 - 2.06 (result 1-2)

too many chances given/created by inter.

4 wins out of 4. 9 goals, 1 conceded.

 

[G.Costanza]

juve won last season with 83 points, and they are not better this season for sure, same thing can be said about inter as well.

85 can win the league, and we already have 12 after 4, so 73 from next 34 will win us the league.

It's totally doable, and we actually have the team for it this year because we are good all over the pitch. Too soon to get excited but I smell an outcome that will shock everyone.

 

[Stitches]

Udinese - Milan 0.96 - 1.02 (1-2)

Added. This ofc is with penalties added. And maybe a perfect game to to show why penalties should be excluded from xG stats. Other than penalty Udinese was at 0.2