Mike Danton.. Deadly Prey
- Jul 15, 2007
- Reaction score
- Fav. Players
- Kaka, Maldini, Nesta, Gattuso, Pirlo, Inzaghi, Ambrosini, Sheva, Seedorf, Silva, Totti
Gazidis wants to transform decision making into stats based.
Arsenal have statdna system that gives them suggestions who to sign. All they have to plug a desired player to fits a certain criteria.
For example they asked the system for a center back similar to thiago silva & Sergio Ramos then the system recommended they sign Mustafi for 40m.
That may be true, but what’s the other solution? Revolving door of average managers? Guys like Pioli, Mihajlovic, Montella, Giampaolo, they’re all more or less in the same boat. A couple decent seasons between them, a few bad ones, fans debate whether their time at Milan will more like the good season or the bad ones on their resumes. They are ok managers who are quick to change the team and players at the first sign of failure, most don’t have distinct reliable systems in place the players can rely on.
That hasn’t worked, and like you and others have pointed out, they aren’t going to spend in the way a true top team should. Not until the club is bringing in more money. That decision is probably wise honestly, the club loses lots of money and was still going nowhere, even getting on the shit side of uefa. Innovation and a new approach is needed, undoubtedly. It’s different and yes risky, but it holds far more potential of actually changing the club then anything we’ve done for a decade, you have to see that.
I’ll even add, I’d like the team to take a different approach, but I’m on board with anything that’s a good idea as long as they commit to it. I believe the team should bring in more older, veteran players, solidify the team into the top 4, and then invest when the money starts to come in. Inter made top 4 with a very different team then what they’re fielding now, and a different manager as well. As soon as they spent two seasons in the Champions League, they changed their approach and aimed for a title, and they’re competing for it. I would love to bring in Thiago Silva, a guy like Modric, keep Zlatan etc, until we can aim higher. But that’s equally risky, and they cost high wages too.
Overall, yes there’s a lot of risk. But the longer the club sits in mediocrity, the longer it will take to rise again. I’ll take the approach of hiring a manager with a proven resume at building clubs in a certain manner, when you know the potential is to build a competitive team, rather than settle for a pragmatic, gattuso approach where the team is decent but the ceiling is low.
Rangnick is notoriously ego-driven and doesn't believe in anyone else interfering with his teams. So he will double down and not course-correct (like Maldini did with Pioli).
This is a huge assumption. I'd argue that his tactical flexibility when took over Leipzig before Nagelsmann proves he's able to adapt and learn from mistakes. The fact that he demands total control does not automatically mean he's stubborn and inflexible.
The idea of total control is to make sure every decision is made with the same intent and purpose, all towards a single goal. Once a system is built and the machinery is fully operational he can step back and hire a coach and delegate but right now we absolutely need a single vision for everyone to follow.
Sure, I'm not doubting his mental flexibility, I probably didn't elucidate it properly. I'm questioning the structural nature of any one-person decision-making system. Doesn't matter who the person is - Rangnick, Fergie, Maldini, Galliani.. whoever it is (and in whatever context or industry), a one-man decision-making system fundamentally comes with its own risks. Even when the person tries to change their mindset, ultimately it's still their logic system driving that change.
When things go wrong, it's a riskier proposition than a shared power system with multiple stakeholders.
Of course, but how have we been doing with multiple decision makers recently? Barbara/Galliani, MaldiniBoban/Gazidis, FassoneMirabelli/Sanity.
There's a rot in the system. Our kids have not been improving because we are directionless, constantly changing managers and entire playing systems. The RB players thrive without an Ibra because every one of them knows exactly what they need to be doing and have constant guidance from specialized professionals every step of the way. They walk onto the pitch and know exactly what they need to do, they're not lost and asked to improvise.
We have depended for so long on improvisation and 'special players'. Pioli squeezed a bit of that out of them but there's still a big need for structure in all areas of the club and we won't get that unless there's one person in charge to build that structure from the ground up.
Good post.So acknowledging our current situation as what it actually is (poorly constructed thin team, a plainly mediocre coach, coasting along between places 6 and 8), let's assess what would be the best thing to do.
Assumption - Elliott cannot sell in the near future.
Now let's go to motivation. What is Elliott's driving motivation in running this club? They are a hedge fund and the only thing they want is maximizing profits when they sell the asset. So their primary motivation will be geared towards that over the next year or two (it has been so since last summer).
How can the they maximize profits? Route 1) by qualifying for CL, increased sponsorship money, stadium revenue. There's no stadium yet for revenue, there's no sponsorship money without CL, and that leaves only CL qualification in this route. Route 2) by cutting the wage bill, running costs, selling assets with market value. All the steps in this route are easily doable.
Now from Elliott's perspective, the need of the hour is pretty evident. Continue to do as much as possible of the route 2 requirements, while raising the profile of the brand to keep it attractive for a sale. The only possible route 1 scenario (CL qualification) has necessarily become a 'hope' now because anyone sensible in football knows that CL is not guaranteed without spending heaps of money. Elliott is a hedge fund, they won't go for hopeful bets, they'll go for guaranteed outcomes.
This is where we are now. For me, the reason to follow Milan is sporting success. I don't particularly care for a sleek, sexy wage bill full of 20-year old potential talents. So for fans like me, there really isn't nothing to get excited about in such scenarios except to wait until there's an eventual sale.
Coming back to your question now, I agree that there aren't many options available during this period which would guarantee a better outcome than the Rangnick option. With Elliott's approach and motivation that we discussed, it's 99% unlikely that Milan would get sporting success under their ownership no matter who the manager is. Essentially, it's the Arsenal scenario.
However, we need to acknowledge the risks. Clubs which want to stay upper mid-table in Serie A usually have fool-proof approaches to do so. Hire a coach like Pioli, build a team with a mix of experience and youth, go for a 55-65 point season. With a Rangnick situation though, that bare threshold is not a guarantee anymore. The team will be full of youngsters, I can guarantee that. For the first 6 months of the season, there will be a genuine chance for every other team in the league to beat a team like that. Rangnick is notoriously ego-driven and doesn't believe in anyone else interfering with his teams. So he will double down and not course-correct (like Maldini did with Pioli). All of this presents a real risk of a horrendous start to the season.
These are my thoughts at present.
I was just wondering... If they do cancel the rest of the season which honestly looks like a possibility if the virus continues spreading, what would happen to the Europe spots and the relegation spots? Anyone knows if there is a rule for that?
Elliott is a hedge fund, they won't go for hopeful bets, they'll go for guaranteed outcomes.
The ceiling is without a doubt better for a Rangnick regime. The basement is also worse for a Rangnick regime.
They should play behind closed doors.
What they do right now looks like trying to save jube match day revenues.