The Rumour Commode XXXI: The Panther Era

Hitchens said:

Hey relax man, don't take this forum so seriously. Lol.

^Rating on that Ronin impersonation?

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Boateng fans... might as well call me racist

Rafa has been serviceable as hell at CAM considering it’s not a position he ever played for us before the last two matches as far as I can recall. You know, he isn’t the workhorse that Hakan is, but I’m tempted to think he might be a better first choice backup at CAM than Diaz with how we play.

What a talent he is. 5 goals, 5 assists in 16 Serie A matches thus far. He has shown that he can play well at 3 positions in our attacking 4. What value he brings to our squad.

Seeing how the team played the second Hakan came on, I think many of our concerns will be put to rest when he and Bennacer are back and in form. Those two are the driving force behind the style we all love to see. There was some lovely football before Hakan came on, the offside goal and Ibra’s goal, but it went to another level with him on the pitch.

My only concern the rest of the season is RW... injuries/COVID not withstanding.

Sael is so bad right now that I think Samu is genuinely the better choice. Luckily, with Rebic that left side is so overpowered it should start to make up for Samu and Sael’s boner play, but still fuck.

Milan10 said:

Rafa has been serviceable as hell at CAM considering it?s not a position he ever played for us before the last two matches as far as I can recall. You know, he isn?t the workhorse that Hakan is, but I?m tempted to think he might be a better first choice backup at CAM than Diaz with how we play.

What a talent he is. 5 goals, 5 assists in 16 Serie A matches thus far. He has shown that he can play well at 3 positions in our attacking 4. What value he brings to our squad.

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I think he'd do best as SS to Zlatan, but I don't see us changing formation.

Ronin said:

I think he'd do best as SS to Zlatan, but I don't see us changing formation.

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Yeah, that?s almost how he plays when he is on the pitch with Ibra.

#10 should be what hakan is, at least under Padre Stefano.

The game completely changed when hakan came on.

Played the triangle with rebic and Theo for the assist for the second goal.

Assisted the third.

Assisted the fourth.

Put in the cross in the small box, ibra 1vs1 with the keeper.

Created another dangerous chance for Mario from the corner.

This is all in under 20mins.

Not to mention we dominated possession once he came on.


This is hakan il dio costa

Sorry for a long post but..

This post is using data to create an ?opposition? report on AC Milan. The aim of this is to use data to deliver clear insights on how Milan play, in order to help teams prepare for games against Milan. In a real-life scenario, this should definitely be accompanied by video analysis to verify that the claims from the data make sense and identify things that can?t be seen from the data. Most of the data in this piece can be found on https://fbref.com/en/ (correct before the start of matchday 21).

Background

Milan are top of the league, and have lost 2 of their 5 games. They have both a strong attack and defence, but neither of these is the best in the league (based on goals scored and conceded).



When we look at their expected goal statistics, we see that they are still doing well but perhaps they are a bit lucky to be at the top of the league.



This is how they tend to line-up, plus their squad depth in each position. Note that Tomori, Me?t? and Mand?ukić are new signings



Who are their main Goal Threats?

They?re very dependant on Ibrahimović:



Who creates their chances?

?alhanoğlu is their main creator, although there are also other players capable of creating chances (Rebic, Leao, Hernandez).



We?ve seen that Milan are dependent on Ibrahimović and ?alhanoğlu to take and create shots, and so they look to give them the ball as much as possible. These two players are the most common targets of passes from teammates:



How do they pass the ball?

Milan are about league average for possession per game (8th most in the league), and have a varied passing style. They are comfortable playing shorter passes or going more direct (red dot is Milan, leftmost dot is the lowest ranked team for that metric and rightmost dot the highest ranked team).



From goal kicks, Milan tend to go long, and most of these passes are likely towards Ibrahimović:



Milan are below average at completing long passes. This suggests that if they can be forced into playing the ball long (e.g., by pressing them), there is less chance of them retaining the ball.



One of the reasons behind this is that Donnarrumma has the 3rd worst completion amongst all goalkeepers for passes longer than 40 yards (37.3%). If Milan?s defenders can be marked when he has the ball and Donnarumma has to pass it long, it may be easier to win the ball back.

More analysis of these uncompleted long passes would be useful, as it would be good to know if these passes are incomplete because they were being pressed or if they were attempting ambitious passes which didn?t pay off.

How do they create chances?

Milan have generated a lot of shots from set pieces this year, have had a lot of penalties and are capable of letting teams have the ball and counter attacking. This is how they fare in shots/goals from various scenarios:

- Most penalties in the league (14)
- Most shots from set pieces (5 per game)
- They?ve only averaged 51.2% possession per game (8th most), and only Sampdoria, Roma and Fiorentina have scored more goals from counter attacks
- They?re a fairly average crossing side, as their crosses per game (11.2) is only the 11th highest in the league

Which players move the ball into dangerous areas?

They’re very dependent on their full-backs, Hernandez and Calabria, to move the ball up the pitch:



The double pivot of Tonali and Kessie haven’t offered much in moving the ball forward, so if the full backs can be prevented from moving the ball forward it will limit Milan’s ability to get the ball forward and create chances. Again we see that ?alhanoğlu is very important to Milan, and the return of Bennacer from injury will be a welcome addition.

When we compare the passing stats of Milan’s full-backs to other defenders in the league (who have played at least 8 90s), we also see that they pass the ball into dangerous areas more often than other defenders (particularly Calabria):



Whilst Theo hernandez doesn’t move the ball forward as much as Calabria with his passing, he’s a good dribbler. Here’s how his dribbling stats compare to other defenders (who have played at least 8 90s) in Serie A:



How do they defend?

Milan are an above average pressing side, allowing the 5th fewest passes per defensive action (ppda):



Looking at the proportion of overall pressures in each third of the pitch, the data suggests that Milan don’t press aggressively in the final third, instead waiting for their opponent to make their way up the pitch more before pressing intensely (3rd highest % of pressures in the middle of the pitch).



Summary

- They’re a well-rounded side: capable of playing short or going more direct and are good on the counter
- They often use full-backs Calabria and Hernandez to progress the ball
- Dangerous from set-pieces
- They’ve won a lot of penalties this year: be careful in the box
- They’re a side who like to press

Potential Weaknesses to exploit

- They’re very dependant on the full-backs to pass the ball forward so stopping them from doing this can limit Milan
- Goalkeeper Donnarumma doesn’t complete many of his long passes, mark the short options and make him go long

What I’d analyse if I had the data
Are any of Milan’s players bad at completing passes under pressure? This could help identify which players to press
Where do they create and concede chances from?
Use ‘Pass clusterings’ to see if there are type of passes that Milan or specific players complete more than the average team or player. This is inspired by this Tom Worville article: https://theathletic.co.uk/1903957/2...xander-arnold-firmino-passing-premier-league/
Where Hernandez completes his dribbles, as he often likes to dribble inside instead of overlapping

I hope this analysis strikes a balance between providing the relevant people (coaches and managers in this case) with insights which give understanding of how Milan play, even if no obvious ‘actions’ may result from these insights, and insights which can more clearly result in action (e.g., Donnarumma is bad at long passing so make him pass it long). Even though the first type of insights I mentioned may not have a clear ‘so what’, I think that they give the decision-makers (football managers in this case) enough knowledge of the subject area (AC Milan), so that they are prepared to make important decisions about this subject area when the opportunity arises (e.g., ‘if Ibrahimović is their main goal threat and he’s gone of injured, can we take a more attacking approach?’). As I also mentioned previously, this data-driven analysis should also be accompanied by a video analysis. Any feedback on this analysis is welcome.

A serious question.

Leao is the next Henry or niang?

Milan10 said:

Rafa has been serviceable as hell at CAM considering it?s not a position he ever played for us before the last two matches as far as I can recall. You know, he isn?t the workhorse that Hakan is, but I?m tempted to think he might be a better first choice backup at CAM than Diaz with how we play.

What a talent he is. 5 goals, 5 assists in 16 Serie A matches thus far. He has shown that he can play well at 3 positions in our attacking 4. What value he brings to our squad.

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Ronin said:

I think he'd do best as SS to Zlatan, but I don't see us changing formation.

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Milan10 said:

Yeah, that?s almost how he plays when he is on the pitch with Ibra.

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As you guys have said, Leao is just a SS when he's playing in the "CAM" role for Milan. He does well if we're talking about him as an SS, but as much as I prefer Diaz as a RW, Diaz has improved in retaining the ball when he's playing as a CAM. His workrate is high, and he's gotten stronger, but he still needs work. I'm not sure if I'd pay 25m for him yet, but the kid is talented and works hard, there's no doubt about it.

With Leao we leave this huge gap in the middle, so I'd still take Diaz as first-choice backup to Leao in the CAM role. I don't see Hauge having the range of passing or the ability to hold onto the ball to play that role. He's a winger through-and-through, he's gotta improve though, but I'm giving him time.

If there's anything true about those Ottavio rumors, I'd bet we aren't planning on keeping Diaz, unless we sell Samu for him. A backup for Hakan is important, and Diaz being useful across the front line makes me like him almost worth the 25m for his versatility alone.

I'd like to see Diaz tried as RW more often, if I'm honest.

IL Diavolo 3 said:

A serious question.

Leao is the next Henry or niang?

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Yes.

taura

When we look at their expected goal statistics, we see that they are still doing well but perhaps they are a bit lucky to be at the top of the league.

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so we're "lucky" but still less than our main opponents?

?alhanoğlu is their main creator, although there are also other players capable of creating chances (Rebic, Leao, Hernandez).

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Hauge 2nd? are these stats from Serie A only or EL too?

Ronin said:

Hauge 2nd? are these stats from Serie A only or EL too?

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It's the xA/90 stat for Expected Assists per 90. Hauge is second based on whatever logic they use to find that stat, it's not that he is really the second most creative player in terms of actual output (assists, key passes, key chances created, etc).

IL Diavolo 3 said:

#10 should be what hakan is, at least under Padre Stefano.

The game completely changed when hakan came on.

Played the triangle with rebic and Theo for the assist for the second goal.

Assisted the third.

Assisted the fourth.

Put in the cross in the small box, ibra 1vs1 with the keeper.

Created another dangerous chance for Mario from the corner.

This is all in under 20mins.

Not to mention we dominated possession once he came on.


This is hakan il dio costa

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Agreed. Absolutly key player for us. Midfield Bennacer-Kessie-Hakan will be crucial for our scudetto race. What is worring - still no contract extension...

I feel like stats of Milan this season are skewed by the fact that we have not played with our first-choice team at all this year.

If we had our team fit, and were playing with the sort of consistency of Inter or Juve, sure, I'd say, maybe we are lucky. I think the team chemistry, desire, and mentality of the team, especially the backup (and 3rd, and 4th, and 5th [lol]) choice players, is important.

The analysis of Inter and Juve always come with asterisks if CR7 or Lukaku isn't there, imagine if Inter had to play without Lukaku, Barella, De Vrij, and Broz for the amount of time we've missed Hakan, Ibra, Bennacer, or Kjaer. It's annoying. Juve without CR7 are toothless, and yet people have the audacity to keep saying we're Ibra dependent when he's missed so many games.

Taura, thanks for sharing that analysis. I just think we have been playing with so many injuries, so many Covid-induced absences, that stats on Milan and its weaknesses, style, etc are really off, in my view.

Pingu said:

It's the xA/90 stat for Expected Assists per 90. Hauge is second based on whatever logic they use to find that stat, it's not that he is really the second most creative player in terms of actual output (assists, key passes, key chances created, etc).

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I understand that, still an interesting finding. He hasn't been doing that great in the league, although does make a lot of smart passes.

Samaldinho said:

I feel like stats of Milan this season are skewed by the fact that we have not played with our first-choice team at all this year.

If we had our team fit, and were playing with the sort of consistency of Inter or Juve, sure, I'd say, maybe we are lucky. I think the team chemistry, desire, and mentality of the team, especially the backup (and 3rd, and 4th, and 5th [lol]) choice players, is important.

The analysis of Inter and Juve always come with asterisks if CR7 or Lukaku isn't there, imagine if Inter had to play without Lukaku, Barella, De Vrij, and Broz for the amount of time we've missed Hakan, Ibra, Bennacer, or Kjaer. It's annoying. Juve without CR7 are toothless, and yet people have the audacity to keep saying we're Ibra dependent when he's missed so many games.

Taura, thanks for sharing that analysis. I just think we have been playing with so many injuries, so many Covid-induced absences, that stats on Milan and its weaknesses, style, etc are really off, in my view.

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My dear friend, we have a saying here in God?s country, ?you are what your record says you are.? There?s enough evidence, especially given the injuries and COVID issues we?ve suffered, to conclude that Milan is a really fucking good team, the entire squad not just a handful or 11 players. Not to mention the youth and inexperience of most of the squad. As you said, we?ve been inconsistent, but we all saw today what our starting XI is capable of and this was with one of our best players in Bennacer missing and Sael basically playing like a donkey.

This team will light the league up if we can stay healthy and play our starting XI consistently. God I?m praying for a Lazio win next week and a 6-0 title chase ending win against Inter to follow.

Milan10 said:

My dear friend, we have a saying here in God?s country, ?you are what your record says you are.? There?s enough evidence, especially given the injuries and COVID issues we?ve suffered, to conclude that Milan is a really fucking good team, the entire squad not just a handful or 11 players. Not to mention the youth and inexperience of most of the squad. As you said, we?ve been inconsistent, but we all saw today what our starting XI is capable of and this was with one of our best players in Bennacer missing and Sael basically playing like a donkey.

This team will light the league up if we can stay healthy and play our starting XI consistently. God I?m praying for a Lazio win next week and a 6-0 title chase ending win against Inter to follow.

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also Brozovic, Barella and Bastoni are all 1 yellow away from suspension

Serious theoretical question - granted that we have 100m to spend in the summer + whatever we get from sales and Ibra extends his contract, what moves would you make on the market to strengthen first XI (not depth)?

Except RW, that one is pretty clear... let's say we fix that one with free Thauvin.

Milan10 said:

My dear friend, we have a saying here in God?s country, ?you are what your record says you are.? There?s enough evidence, especially given the injuries and COVID issues we?ve suffered, to conclude that Milan is a really fucking good team, the entire squad not just a handful or 11 players. Not to mention the youth and inexperience of most of the squad. As you said, we?ve been inconsistent, but we all saw today what our starting XI is capable of and this was with one of our best players in Bennacer missing and Sael basically playing like a donkey.

This team will light the league up if we can stay healthy and play our starting XI consistently. God I?m praying for a Lazio win next week and a 6-0 title chase ending win against Inter to follow.

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I love this post

Ronin said:

Serious theoretical question - granted that we have 100m to spend in the summer + whatever we get from sales and Ibra extends his contract, what moves would you make on the market to strengthen firt XI (not depth)?

Except RW, that one is pretty clear... let's say we fix that one with free Thauvin.

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if Tomori keeps up Id redeem him for sure. We'll also need a Theo backup, that's potentially 15mil or so..not sure how the mngmnt sees Kalulu, if he's Calabria backup then fine, else we need another RB. Some money might go towards redeeming Meite, depending on how he does for the rest of the season, then we need a new 5th mid (Krunic needs to be sold). Get Diaz on another season long loan or spend a chunk on getting a new vice Hakan

Ronin said:

Serious theoretical question - granted that we have 100m to spend in the summer + whatever we get from sales and Ibra extends his contract, what moves would you make on the market to strengthen firt XI (not depth)?

Except RW, that one is pretty clear... let's say we fix that one with free Thauvin.

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Not much really. With a RW like Thauvin - a more attacking player - I think our XI is actually very good if the players keep up their form. The bench is the issue, and most of the funds would go toward fulfilling loans i.e Tonali, Tomori, Meite and then possibly Diaz if anything is arranged. Dalot I don't see as worth it, so a backup LB would be the next item on the list. As long as Ibra extends as you've said in theory, then we won't need another CF. Mandzu (if he renews) and Leao are fine for that.

What Milan should invest in is technology to keep the players injury-free from our intense press style when we play every 3 days more often than not

taura said:

also Brozovic, Barella and Bastoni are all 1 yellow away from suspension

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Really? Better bring out the voodoo for all three to get yellows vs. Lazio

21 years old:

Compared to other attacking players in the team (Hakan, Brahim, Saele, Samu, Ibra, Hauge, Rebic):

1. 5 goals - second after Ibra, first among non CFs.
2. 5 assists - second after Hakan.
3. A goal or assist every 114 minutes - second after Ibra.
4. 2.1 succ. dribbles per 90 min - second after Brahim Diaz but 63.6% success compared to 53.6% of Brahim still makes Leao better.
5. 2.9 uns. touches/dispossesions per 90 - second after Ibra.
6. 2 aerials won per 90 - second after Ibra.
7. 1 Through Ball - First.
8. 5.9 carries to the zone per 90 - second after Hakan.
9. 0.58 dribbles leading to a shot per 90 - First.
10. 25% shot conversion rate - Second after Ibra.
11. 7 big chances created - Second to Hakan.
12. 128 yards progressed with the Ball per 90 - Second to Hakan (Was first when he was playing as a winger).

Ronin said:

Serious theoretical question - granted that we have 100m to spend in the summer + whatever we get from sales and Ibra extends his contract, what moves would you make on the market to strengthen first XI (not depth)?

Except RW, that one is pretty clear... let's say we fix that one with free Thauvin.

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Tomori, Brahim Diaz, Thauvin are the first 3 I want.

The rest should be to fill holes.

Milan10 said:

My dear friend, we have a saying here in God?s country, ?you are what your record says you are.? There?s enough evidence, especially given the injuries and COVID issues we?ve suffered, to conclude that Milan is a really fucking good team, the entire squad not just a handful or 11 players. Not to mention the youth and inexperience of most of the squad. As you said, we?ve been inconsistent, but we all saw today what our starting XI is capable of and this was with one of our best players in Bennacer missing and Sael basically playing like a donkey.

This team will light the league up if we can stay healthy and play our starting XI consistently. God I?m praying for a Lazio win next week and a 6-0 title chase ending win against Inter to follow.

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That game against Inter will be a 3-0 like 2011 with the Pato goal. Time to make a statement and bury them. I really believe we?re better.

Ronin said:

Serious theoretical question - granted that we have 100m to spend in the summer + whatever we get from sales and Ibra extends his contract, what moves would you make on the market to strengthen first XI (not depth)?

Except RW, that one is pretty clear... let's say we fix that one with free Thauvin.

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Out weakness is only RW. I would spend all the 100m on that position.

As I got older, I promised myself not to get attached to a Milan player.. but I really think we selling Bennacer this summer. (Hope am wrong) And the thought of it makes me sad

Qaas said:

As I got older, I promised myself not to get attached to a Milan player.. but I really think we selling Bennacer this summer. (Hope am wrong) And the thought of it makes me sad

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No.

VultureSheva said:

21 years old:

Compared to other attacking players in the team (Hakan, Brahim, Saele, Samu, Ibra, Hauge, Rebic):

1. 5 goals - second after Ibra, first among non CFs.
2. 5 assists - second after Hakan.
3. A goal or assist every 114 minutes - second after Ibra.
4. 2.1 succ. dribbles per 90 min - second after Brahim Diaz but 63.6% success compared to 53.6% of Brahim still makes Leao better.
5. 2.9 uns. touches/dispossesions per 90 - second after Ibra.
6. 2 aerials won per 90 - second after Ibra.
7. 1 Through Ball - First.
8. 5.9 carries to the zone per 90 - second after Hakan.
9. 0.58 dribbles leading to a shot per 90 - First.
10. 25% shot conversion rate - Second after Ibra.
11. 7 big chances created - Second to Hakan.
12. 128 yards progressed with the Ball per 90 - Second to Hakan (Was first when he was playing as a winger).

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Man should join the NFL.

Lord Silva scored yet again
But that doesn't stop n00bz from screaming for the chicken guy
Good to see Pingu has broken out of the passport based football assessment