If Pioli didn't have his January-panic of the 343 but instead went against Spurs with his 424, we would have lost to Spurs, and the game would have looked somewhat similar to the way it did against Inter--maybe not as bad, as having Leao fundamentally changes the way a team lines up against you, etc, but still... Pioli resisted the idea of falling into Conte's trap, but for some reason... against Inter, he did the exact opposite. I don't fucking get it.
The game-plan to beat Inter and Inzaghi was laid out against Spurs--which he only went to out-of-desperation, not out of some smart tactical tweak.
Against teams like Napoli, who play 433 and straight-up attack, we can tear them to shreds.
Pioli is struggling to match a 352 because he still is wedded to the idea of a SS in his 4231 (424) against a 352, and not only does he leave his midfield exposed, but none of our attackers know how to pass, which means that they dribble to create, force the issue, and try to use counter-pressing to create opportunities. Well, he's exhausted most of his players since he relies on the same 13 players, but expects them to play an up-tempo style to win games without an attacking strategy... Tonali exceeded his total minutes from the entirety of last season several games ago, it's insane.
It is not about Kessie, nor do I think we lost to Inter because we didn't want to play physical--I think the team tried hard, but the plan was so bad, that it doesn't matter how hard you try, if your tactics are off, it's not going to be about desire. Inter was baiting us into pressing them and then they hit us on the break, or when we attacked, they would hit us during transitions. The exact sort of shit that Conte and Spurs wanted to do--and Pioli fucking fell for it. This wasn't a new wrinkle in Inter's setup, this is... what they do, they've always done.
After we conceded the first goal, a bad early goal to concede on a set-piece, Pioli didn't tell his team to relax, calm down, keep it tight, be patient. No, the team acted like if they didn't attack and score to respond immediately, that they would be automatically lose--this opened them up and Inter scored a second, and then they got even more desperate, which was made worse because the tactical setup was not there to play Inter. When teams don't have to worry about the one-two punch of Leao and Theo, the games look very different, yes, but Jesus Christ Pioli--what were you thinking?
How many times have Real been outplayed by their opponents in the first half of games? Or for 90% of games? But they keep it tight, if they concede first, they don't freak out and make themselves even more vulnerable. No, they ride out the pressure, don't panic, and wait for their moment.
Milan did this against Spurs. Milan has done this before. Pioli has done this before. But Pioli has consistently done the wrong shit. The only time in 2023 that I saw Pioli show the tactical know-how that won me over from 21/22 was against Napoli. That's it. All three games? Wonderful job from Pioli. Truly.
Against Spurs? I would have put that in a similar category, but... I look back and think... this guy just accidentally got his tactics right out-of-fear, at least that is what it looks like. And the biggest reason I think that is... you didn't have Leao against Inter and you fucking... you didn't learn you fucking lesson?
You guys can talk about transfers until the end of times, but the tactical mistakes and simplification of our attacking patterns of play (they aren't even patterns, they're just "hey Brahim Leao, dribble!") cannot mask the fact that Pioli has ideas that don't work, because he's stuck to a 424 in the face of blowouts and has looked at tactics that have worked and refused to reuse them, without reason.
Pioli has either shown that he can't handle a club the size of Milan when there is actual pressure and expectations, or that what has worked during his tenure at Milan has went against his ultimate ideas (the 424) and that his fundamental desire for a 424 is the larger problem, because he clearly doesn't have the players for it, and so why not adjust? He has refused to admit defeat, and worse yet, he's being arrogant not about some intricate style like Zeman, no, he wants to play bully ball with players he's run into the ground.
Napoli are a much better team than Inter, but Pioli used tactics to blow them away. 6-1 over three games is no fluke. Tactics could have let a weakened Milan team grind out a 0-0 or a 1-0 loss, that would've been fine, but Pioli played Inter like he had some point to prove. Why? Everyone moaned about Milan-Spurs being boring. Who gives a shit? This is a semi-final. You're not Sacchi, you haven't implemented some revolutionary style that will echo for generations... you're here to win and you don't even have your best attacking player, what the fuck are you doing?
Cry about transfers all you want, go ahead, but when you have a coach who refuses to use the tools you give him properly or worse yet, doesn't have a fucking plan, it doesn't matter how many players you have, look at Chelsea.
Pioli has to bear the brunt of the blame here, and the only reason I'd hesitate in firing him is because of how strong his relationship is with these players, who are still really young--but I think Pioli has shown that he's not Steve Kerr, he's Mark Jackson, and that's unfortunate.