Hm, under Allegri, it is being reported that he's going 433 and if they sell Theo, I think the idea is to get a more defensive LB to provide Leao the space to attack while Pulisic as our RW can pull central and use a more attacking RB to overlap with. I imagine that means Modric is less regista and more mezzala while Xhaka performs your regista duties and Fofana cleans up. The more flat 3-man midfield turns into a 442 in defense, something that Pep, Fonseca, and Conte would all do. Adli can be deployed as backup for both Xhaka and Modric in this setup, RLC can be deployed on the right of the 433 while you put Fofana on the left, depending on your opponents, and I think Bondo stays to provide extra steel and cover--if they are selling Musah I think Bondo is there to replace him as the developmental player who also provides cover for RLC.
If
I got to be the SD? I would have appointed De Zerbi and I would want to keep Theo--if they're giving up on Theo I think it means he's got some sort of off-the-field problem(s) that are impacting his play, and if that is the case, I'd understand and probably do the same as them. Absent those issues, if De Zerbi can relaunch him, I'd take that gamble. Of course, how De Zerbi lines up and who he would want is not something I know, and with Marseille he used Rabiot further forward in this 3421 but also went 4231, he's not as dogmatic as people think.
I bring up Theo because it impacts how our midfield lines up. Dodo and Cambiaso are nice options to play RB, but I think if a coach can rehabilitate Theo, he's worth the effort.
If I got my way I'd want to be flexible enough to be as ball-dominant when need be, but pragmatic enough to hit the ball long to fast attackers over-the-top and grind out wins if I had to--essentially I'm a fan of Carlo Ancelotti's chameleon tactical philosophy. In short: my tactics flow from what I have available to me. Last week I only had one winger, so I played a Odegaard-like CM as my LW with a Vitinha-like DM paired with a Polish Yaya Toure DM with a Modric-like kid at CAM who dropped at will, leaving a relentless pressing striker to battle the opponents backline and my outlet was a RW with pure speed, who can only go one direction and shoot with his right, so I didn't think he could cut to his right from the left, and since he's so single-minded I figured "hey, let him do that."
For Milan? Depending on the opponents, I'd play a 4231 with midfield units of: Adli-Xhaka with Modric as CAM, when we really want to possess the ball, especially if we're going to siege a team, and if we need more steel, go Xhaka-Fofana with Modric at CAM, or Adli there if Modric needs a breather (he is 39, after-all) and if we really want to go full-on counter-and-steel put RLC at CAM (from deep a la PSG). Bondo to come in and help as a sub as he learns his trade, etc. I'd want Modric and Xhaka to mentor Adli to be a long-term anchor for us, at worst, he's a good enough squad player.
We would need to invest heavily in the midfield the following season, even if Adli blossomed. Bondo's development would be a huge factor, as well.
I prefer the 4231 or a 433 with a more ^ shape absent some unreal regista. I want a CAM who, when need be, can drop into the midfield to provide defensive cover when the game-state requires, but when we attack, can drop from the CAM spot to provide confusion to the CBs, providing the space for the more attacking of the CMs to run into that space (something that Tiji was great at doing)--but the flexibility of the CAM is crucial for me, someone who can provide the final ball in the final third, keep the ball moving when against a low-block, or unlock teammates when dropping deeper. Modric is one of the best players in history at doing this.
I prefer the 4231 to the (Allegri) 433 because I want us to be ball-dominant, and I like having weapons like Leao, Theo, and Pulisic--and if Santi blossoms then his job becomes far simpler as he doesn't need to be
as crucial to build-up play as he will have to be in a 433. I will say that Santi's lack of involvement outside of finishing is a huge worry, he needs to improve there,
unless he's just going to be putting up Feyenoord goal scoring numbers in Serie A. It's why Conceicao preferred Jovic to Santi in the 343, where we absorbed pressure and that central link needed to be the striker--but if you have someone in that CAM space who can actually link play, that problem is solved. Fonseca tried Pulisic there and that's not Pulisic's game, it also meant we had Chuk or Musah at RW which failed. Conceicao bet on Felix to do that and he was terrible, there were no alternatives and our midfield could only (attempt) to contain or hit on-the-break, hence the 343.
I think Allegri saw that problem, but being ball-dominant and possession-heavy is not going to be his solution--his solution won't be to keep the ball and impose the game, he's going to want to absorb pressure. I think Allegri is going to use the passing abilities of Modric, Xhaka, Adli, and Fofana (who is actually a better passer than many think) to draw our opponents in, so that Leao and Pulisic can be outlets for more direct play through and over the man-centered pressing patterns that are so prevalent today. The hyper man-orientated press that is taking over the EPL is not being widely adopted by Serie A teams, and PSG are actually pressing (and possessing the ball) in a very different way to that, they mix zone and man much more--their attacking patterns are also far different--but Allegri isn't going to face play like that, only Gasperini and Italiano try those sorts of approaches, Conte doesn't do that, and Chivu's squad is not built for that whatever his philosophy is.
Point is: I think Allegri's Milan will look and play more like Carlo's Real against City before Mbappe (yes everything with Real is better, yes, yes, visualize the concept [again this is for critics, not you, bro]), and it won't be Leao and Pulisic as two "strikers" in a psuedo-442, I bring up that Real team under Carlo to say that we'll use our midfield to create space for our attack to exploit. Allegri wants a big boy striker, that's obvious from the Vlahovic rumors (if they're true). Allegri isn't going to manufacture counters like De Zerbi, he's going to absorb pressure and the utility of passing is simply to ensure the ball to trigger the counter will be made with quality, he wants to make those chances be as high quality as possible.
I don't think Allegri's previous stint with Juve is going to be the template, I don't think we're built for that 352 he used, and the rumors about who we're going for don't point to that--hopefully Allegri's style works, and frankly, it should, without European football, a Scudetto should be very achievable when the rest of your rivals all have European commitments.
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