The Rumour Commode XXXIX: A Cardinal Sin

[Omer]

Yes, but spending 300m is irrational, and if you’re irrational what’s another couple million to buy the club?

Saudis spent 300 mil for Newcastle and have already spent 200-300 mil on transfers. Now they are in the top 4 of EPL, while they were near relegation when Saudis bought them. Doesn't seem too irrational!

Saudis could have also bought a bigger club for 1-2 billion. But no one likes to overpay by a big amount like the 500 mil extra bonus Redbird agreed to on top of the 1.2 billion.

400 mil by Investcorp would probably be over 2 seasons. Still much better than 35 mil net mercato, Milan did last summer. And Redshit had signed the purchase agreement before the summer. It just by chance those stingy fuckers waited till 2 days after mercato ends to close it!

 

[MilanMB]

You think Roma can afford to not sell him and keep letting his value rot on the bench?

They are making a stand but the realities is they need to get some value for him for FFP since their owners aren't about to ball out either. So they flexed their muscles now but comes summer, they won't have much leverage and will pay for this little flex in the form of even lower offers (there won't be desperate EPL relegation candidates willing to overpay for a mid-season injection in the summer to bail them out either).

Roma will definitely sell him, as it seems now

But desperate EPL relegation candidates aren't the only ones who can outspend us, he'll have suitors for sure.

If there's no one who wants him and we can get him for 10-15 then fine

beggars can't be choosers

 

[Alo88]

Well I started my original post stating that this is posturing but what we don't know is what exactly was their plan after purchase and if they would operate similar to RedBird or Elliot initially.

We do know Gerry's was to raise funds which didn't work out and so far hasn't spent anything concrete.

What's baffling to me is how almost no one in here finds the timing of such sensational breaking news at least a tiny little bit suspicious. Moreover I see people getting very creative at thinking of very specific scenarios where this scoup might make sense when the easiest of all explanations gets disregarded just like that - that it's media BS.

I mean what the fuck?

Moreover I always called bullshit when media were speculating about specific numbers and "war chests". I did it when they rumored big spendings with Elliott, when they did it with Investcorp back in spring and I'm doing it now. I've never changed my stance in that regard.

Okay fine, if I am to gullibly fall for such figures, at least have the decency to break them down for me. Are we talking 300-400M between salary, taxes and amortisation? Would Investcorp's plan be to simply double and triple our current payroll like Li did back in the day without even a plan of how we are going to grow so much in such a short time on the revenue side - without our own stadium on top of that? Or are we talking about 300-400M spread over the next 3-5 years? Does that include the sale of players? You see, there are still so many unanswered questions in this report that makes for a great headline - and that's exactly why I keep telling you guys, even when sounding like a broken record, not to fall for this kind of crap, which conveniently always comes to light just when it suits us least.

 

[Master Smurf]

It's like the luxury tax of the NBA, yea it's good to stay financially responsible but when you are close to championship contention, paying a little tax to get that edge is worth it.

Doesn't matter how we spin it, other than Juve, no other club's owner is willing to come close to paying these prices. Especially with most teams not even owning their stadium.

So in that sense, until we get more competitive, we won't really see owners who will be willing invest in us, just guys like these. We can sit and argue all day whether it's brokeness or they really have the money but won't spend it, the end result is the same.

Regarding the investicorp bit, wild made a good point regarding ownership. Well then if one insists on consistency and follows brk's line of thoughts, one would ask if they aren't even willing to "overpay" initially to own the team what makes us think they will be fine with paying the fines or suffering more financial consequences (if they opt out of European tournament) and risk their new signings turning to shit like Li? In other words, what makes us believe that they won't see investing in ways I listed above where they ignore FFP and inject 300-400m as "overpaying"?

The only part I would challenge is on the overpaying for ownership - all I keep hearing about investing, purchasing property etc is never to overpay on your purchase.
A sugardaddy will, a desperate man may also but a shrewd person / entity wont.
You are now extrapolating out that how one purchases dictates how they will go about building that investment up and that is where I say you cant.

But I wasnt arguing over spilt milk, it was just very funny to me the arguments chose to defend Elliot / RedBird in the face of what has transpired so far.
Ad once again I continue to wait for summer as I always advocated.

 

[brk]

FFP is the boogeyman of the poor.

It’s also a convenient excuse for the stingy.

 

[Master Smurf]

What's baffling to me is how almost no one in here finds the timing of such sensational breaking news at least a tiny little bit suspicious. Moreover I see people getting very creative at thinking of very specific scenarios where this scoup might make sense when the easiest of all explanations gets disregarded just like that - that it's media BS.

I mean what the fuck?

Moreover I always called bullshit when media were speculating about specific numbers and "war chests". I did it when they rumored big spendings with Elliott, when they did it with Investcorp back in spring and I'm doing it now. I've never changed my stance in that regard.

Okay fine, if I am to gullibly fall for such figures, at least have the decency to break them down for me. Are we talking 300-400M between salary, taxes and amortisation? Would Investcorp's plan be to simply double and triple our current payroll like Li did back in the day without even a plan of how we are going to grow so much in such a short time on the revenue side - without our own stadium on top of that? Or are we talking about 300-400M spread over the next 3-5 years? Does that include the sale of players? You see, there are still so many unanswered questions in this report that makes for a great headline - and that's exactly why I keep telling you guys, even when sounding like a broken record, not to fall for this kind of crap, which conveniently always comes to light just when it suits us least.

Not baffling at all - please consult my initial post.

If you dont want to - its tied directly to our freefall with the inability to purchase any reinforcements.

 

[Master Smurf]

It’s also a convenient excuse for the stingy.

 

[vB9]

You dont make a 200/300m transfer market every yr... any1 who comes to Milan is not spending this amount to be irrational, they are spending it out of necessity, a whole new squad.

 

[Curupira]

The only part I would challenge is on the overpaying for ownership - all I keep hearing about investing, purchasing property etc is never to overpay on your purchase.
A sugardaddy will, a desperate man may also but a shrewd person / entity wont.
You are now extrapolating out that how one purchases dictates how they will go about building that investment up and that is where I say you cant.

But I wasnt arguing over spilt milk, it was just very funny to me the arguments chose to defend Elliot / RedBird in the face of what has transpired so far.
Ad once again I continue to wait for summer as I always advocated.

Fair.

To be honest with you, for me best case scenario is Red Bird can spend like Elliot did before they changed their strategies (80-100m windows sales included) rather than the 35m 350k type windows.


I hope I am wrong and brk is right.

 

[taura]

Disagree...I like Thiaw and think that he has potential, however, Romagnoli is a Serie A proven defender and his importance at the back was severely underrated which we're only starting to realise now. Also, it's no coincidence that Lazio have the second best defence in the league. Therefore, we would've been better off renewing him for 2-3 seasons and using the 7m spent on Thiaw (who NEVER plays) to cover the first year's amortization.

In other words, Maldini has frittered away all of our money on players who DON'T play which is why we're struggling given all the injuries.

Romagnoli works well at Lazio since they defend deep. Our high pressing was exposing all his flaws

 

[Alo88]

Saudis spent 300 mil for Newcastle and have already spent 200-300 mil on transfers. Now they are in the top 4 of EPL, while they were near relegation when Saudis bought them. Doesn't seem too irrational!

Saudis could have also bought a bigger club for 1-2 billion. But no one likes to overpay by a big amount like the 500 mil extra bonus Redbird agreed to on top of the 1.2 billion.

400 mil by Investcorp would probably be over 2 seasons. Still much better than 35 mil net mercato, Milan did last summer. And Redshit had signed the purchase agreement before the summer. It just by chance those stingy fuckers waited till 2 days after mercato ends to close it!

Where does that 500M extra bonus come from? I've tried to find it but couldn't. The official statement from Milan doesn't state it. Nor do the Financial Times, Reuters or Bloomberg.

 

[General]

They’re loaning 600m at a reasonable interest rate.

 

[Omer]

It's like the luxury tax of the NBA, yea it's good to stay financially responsible but when you are close to championship contention, paying a little tax to get that edge is worth it.

Doesn't matter how we spin it, other than Juve, no other club's owner is willing to come close to paying these prices. Especially with most teams not even owning their stadium.

So in that sense, until we get more competitive, we won't really see owners who will be willing invest in us, just guys like these. We can sit and argue all day whether it's brokeness or they really have the money but won't spend it, the end result is the same.

Regarding the investicorp bit, wild made a good point regarding ownership. Well then if one insists on consistency and follows brk's line of thoughts, one would ask if they aren't even willing to "overpay" initially to own the team what makes us think they will be fine with paying the fines or suffering more financial consequences (if they opt out of European tournament) and risk their new signings turning to shit like Li? In other words, what makes us believe that they won't see investing in ways I listed above where they ignore FFP and inject 300-400m as "overpaying"?

The Saudi buy of Newcastle negates you point. They chose to buy Newcastle for around 300 GBP rather than overpaying for a big club. And they have already spent around 200-300 mil on transfers.

Injecting money in a team helps to increase the revenue ( Man City, Chelsea, PSG... ). So it's better to either either buy a cheaper club with not so high revenue and invest in it to grow it fast or you you can buy a more expensive club that already has big revenues ( Todd Boehly Chelsea ) and grow it more slowly. What doesn't make sense is to overpay for a club that doesn't have such big revenues and is still priced high.

 

[General]

Leao carried the Scudetto run

If Rebic was featured in that role it probably doesn't happen

Not a crazy thing to say

we are playing the what if what happened didn’t happen game

have fun

 

[Curupira]

The Saudi buy of Newcastle negates you point. They chose to buy Newcastle for around 300 GBP rather than overpaying for a big club. And they have already spent around 200-300 mil on transfers.

How can it negate my point when my point is nobody who is willing to splash that kind of money will buy teams in Serie A?

Name another Serie A club other than Juventus (have their own stadium btw) who is spending to that level? You are proving my point for me that it's much more attractive to splash in EPL.

Injecting money in a team helps to increase the revenue ( Man City, Chelsea, PSG... ).

What is the common denominator here? They aren't in Serie A.

So it's better to either either buy a cheaper club with not so high revenue and invest in it to grow it fast or you you can buy a more expensive club that already has big revenues ( Todd Boehly Chelsea ) and grow it more slowly. What doesn't make sense is to overpay for a club that doesn't have such big revenues and is still priced high.

100%. That would be us

 

[Kmoney]

Calabria is a top player is one of the myths I will never understand. He's had a good run of games but has always been prone to brainfarts and idiotic clearances.

Current Calabria is probably the worst outfield player in our squad

I would try him at CM, he doesn’t have the athleticism to play full back

 

[Ash]

No, all we’re saying is that it’s extremely farcical that Investcorp would have spent 300-400m on the market.

Yes it is

But they definitely would have spent more than whatever Redbird came up with.

Also, last I checked folks said we had a very good management in place to keep our spending in check, no?

What Investcorp would have done is give management more breathing space so we didnt have to end up choosing a CDK or a Botman. It would have given a bit more freedom to take more risks like Enzo.

After all, this is a fund that is well known for bringing companies back from the wilderness. The mere value of their assets gives them an advantage.

What track record did Redbird exactly have compared to them?

Ooh...they helped grow the Yankees and Cowboys brands. Yeah, because those two brands were really in the gutter before them.

The only thing Redbird had over Investcorp was that they were willing to pay slightly higher than what Investcorp offered, a significant minority share to Elliot and a ridiculously expensive vendor loan. Certainly helps that Redbird is just two doors down from Elliott and Cardinale is buddies with Singer.

 

[Kojak]

Apparently Victor Eletu signed a 3 year contract worth 1m plus bonuses which is pretty big money for a Primavera player. Management must really believe in him.

Milan Primavera star Eletu ready to terrorise opponents and seems set for superstardom

Victor Eletu is viewed as a shining star of the future, and the end of 2022 proved memorable for the teenage midfield maestro.

sempremilan.com

 

[Omer]

Where does that 500M extra bonus come from? I've tried to find it but couldn't. The official statement from Milan doesn't state it. Nor do the Financial Times, Reuters or Bloomberg.

https://football-italia.net/more-details-emerge-on-redbird-purchase-of-milan-amid-chelsea-comparison/:

It is also reported that Elliott would receive a bonus if RedBird were to sell Milan on at a higher price than they paid for it.

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/what-redbird-investment-ac-milan-23971679:

It was then reported that RedBird are nearing a 1.3bn euro investment in the club, a deal that could eventually rise to 1.8bn in bonuses. Reuters reported that RedBird declined to comment.

 

[General]

sad

searching for someone to blame

 

[Kmoney]

The Maldini era started off really well with analytics driven, undervalued players: Maignan, Theo, Bennacer, Kalulu, Tomori. With some known players sprinkled in (Tonali).

Somewhere along the line we decided to say screw analytics and go for obvious names everyone knew about/market opportunities - Aka lazy scouting: Bakayoko, Origi, Florenzi, CDK, Giroud, and now Zaniolo, Ziyech

I’m not sure why this happened but the strategy of unearthing high potential players seems to have been abandoned in favor of lazy buying

Not only that, but we seem to have deviated from our initial strategy of physically capable, athletic players which defined Maldini’s initial tenure

 

[Alo88]

Not baffling at all - please consult my initial post.

If you dont want to - its tied directly to our freefall with the inability to purchase any reinforcements.

I see. Probably just like the story spun out of thin air about "rottura totale" between Maldini and Leao.

You don't find it suspicious that such things come out days before a derby? Or that such sensational headlines are not followed by any explanation of how these figures are made up?

Come on, nobody can be that naive.

 

[vB9]

Current Calabria is probably the worst outfield player in our squad

I would try him at CM, he doesn’t have the athleticism to play full back

Backup RB, backup DM...

 

[Omer]

How can it negate my point when my point is nobody who is willing to splash that kind of money will buy teams in Serie A?

Name another Serie A club other than Juventus (have their own stadium btw) who is spending to that level? You are proving my point for me that it's much more attractive to splash in EPL.

What is the common denominator here? They aren't in Serie A.


100%. That would be us

French league is even smaller than Serie A! And PSG is now one of the biggest clubs in the world. In fact Milan was the first choice of the Emir of Qatar. He offered 1 bil to Berlusconi in 2007-2008. But Berlusconi refused.

The Newcastle deals shows that just because you don't want to pay a huge price to buy a club, that doesn't automatically mean you won't spent big on transfers. I think you were saying the opposite: that if Investcorp doesn't want to overpay for Milan, then why would they invest big in transfers? Saudis didn't overpay plus they have been big in the transfer market.

 

[Kmoney]

Apparently Victor Eletu signed a 3 year contract worth 1m plus bonuses which is pretty big money for a Primavera player. Management must really believe in him.

Milan Primavera star Eletu ready to terrorise opponents and seems set for superstardom

Victor Eletu is viewed as a shining star of the future, and the end of 2022 proved memorable for the teenage midfield maestro.

sempremilan.com

Is he a DM type or playmaker type? Would love to have an athletic and strong African DM fucking shit up in the middle of the field

 

[vB9]

@Curupira

I seen Cala play CM/DM... guy's like a chihuahua biting at the feet of whoever has the ball.

 

[Ash]

The evidence is more on the side of ‘slow start’. Maldini signing on is the clearest sign. Winter market was weird. there’s a case to say why spend on Pioli if you might not end the season with him? As long as we get to 4th they can rebuild on their own terms in the summer. That’s why I’m giving them until then to see if they have any sort of ambition to really take us where we need to go.

A whole lot of cope in one post.

Maldini signing? Yeah its completely normal to wait until the last day of their contracts to resign a management team that just won a scudetto.

Also its completely normal to not reinforce the team whatsover bar a BS backup keeper signing (a dude that will never play) because you arent sure if the manager will be the same by the end of the season. Yeah, because conceding 18 goals in 7 games isnt reason enough for a sane ownership to provide atleast some sort of assistance.

Looking forward to the theories that you come up with when they predictably spend fuck all again in the summer, especially more if we miss CL.

After all, werent you the ones justifying that the reason we didnt spend much in the summer because it was Elliott and not Redbird (because the takeover wasnt finalised) and that we will see what they do in the winter.

Amazing how the goalposts keep shifting.

 

[Kmoney]

Sky: Saelemaekers and Pobega expected to win position battles and start vs. Inter

It is two days until AC Milan take on their city rivals Inter in the Derby della Madonnina, and some indications are arriving on how the team might line up.

sempremilan.com

@brk CDK wasn’t even in the “runoff” for the right wing spot, it was apparently between Messias, Saele, And Diaz (giant LOL).

Is this the final straw towards your #PioliOut migration?

 

[Curupira]

@Curupira

I seen Cala play CM/DM... guy's like a chihuahua biting at the feet of whoever has the ball.

As long as he's better than metit then I am all for it. Though I think his decision making would make me nervous as a DM.

 

[Curupira]

French league is even smaller than Serie A! And PSG is now one of the biggest clubs in the world. In fact Milan was the first choice of the Emir of Qatar. He offered 1 bil to Berlusconi in 2007-2008. But Berlusconi refused.

How come none of these big spenders offered to buy us when we were sold?

And I don't think potential investors just look at whether the league is bigger or smaller when deciding whether it's a friendly destination for their investment. I would be happy to eat my L when a big sugar daddy take over and start splashing in Serie A though.

The Newcastle deals shows that just because you don't want to pay a huge price to buy a club, that doesn't automatically mean you won't spent big on transfers. I think you were saying the opposite: that if Investcorp doesn't want to overpay for Milan, then why would they invest big in transfers? Saudis didn't overpay plus they have been big in the transfer market.

That's not the point I made though. My point is if they didn't want to "overpay" for Milan, they wouldn't want to overpay for transfers. Overpay meaning dealing with FFP fines and potential missing out in european competitions which set them back more financially.

Newcastle is in a bigger market league that has more financial leeway, so they can spend that much as a relegation team and even whether the storm in the English Championship whereas if they have that type of market and god forbid it doesn't pay off (like Li), we'd be financially in the shitter and will cost them more money to fix.