The Rumour Commode XLIV: Paragliding to Piolistine Crisis

[Deleted member 35916]

We have additional sponsors that earn us additional revenues.
They lost a huge bunch of their fake Chinese sponsors after that economy defaulted. They haven't been able to replace-recover those.
The loss in UCL earnings and TV revenues won't be replaced in their financials by unearned Club World Cup earnings, and their sponsorship with Paramount was nowhere near the level as the one they had with Digibits.
So how are they suppose to make up for the revenues to push them into the black?
Squad costs going down by 15 to 20M does not cover for lost revenues in excess of 50M.

If you're doing a "us vs them" comparison, do one on the results on the field. It may shock you.

No one is saying they are as good financially as us but they're on their way. Every club will be on their way as it's unsustainable to be losing money year after year.

But haven't people given up on the whole "doom and gloom" scenarios on this forum? Last year it was Barca, now it's Inter. None of these clubs are going under. Everyone was screaming how Zhang is about to lose Inter and he did what I said would happen all along: he refinanced.

 

[ROSSONERI7]

Whatever else could be said about current management, the fact that injuries and lacklustre results in key fixtures yet still 2nd is deemed not good enough - that speaks to ambition.

I like it. Things are moving in the right direction unless the new coach faceplants, or quality players decide to leave.

To me this is almost a certainty. And it’s directly connected to the decision to keep him.
It has transformed 1 Meh season (which happens) into 2 seasons of what would feel like stagnation for some quality players (who do not lack suitors). It has killed a lot of the feelgood vibe that was there.
Now we’re pretty much taking them on a new adventure…it’s not a restart from 0 but it’s enough of an unknown for players who are good enough to be in CL contending teams to reconsider.

We are fans, we’re here for life… some of them are already halfway through a ~15 years career.

Like I said yesterday, and before. there seems to be a little underestimating on the impact of it on the near future.

Unless new manager comes out swinging (which will be nice) , though realism says it’ll take some time for a new coach, even if good, to really get going.

Time will tell.

 

[brk]

They're roughly on a same trajectory as us. 246, 140, 85 are their losses in the last 3 years. They won't be 0 this year but they're getting there. And their squad costs are decreasing as well.

I agree they've been doing an amazing job of downsizing, but they still have a ways to go and I don't see much fat left to trim.

We were almost entirely fat. We literally replaced our entire squad, besides Calabria. Our superstar is on 6.5m a year gross, they have 7 players who are paid more than that, with Hakan being paid almost double.

It's around 28m difference a year, which isn't that big. They already lost Sanchez and that's 4.6m down, and Sensi is leaving this summer and that's a huge 11m, so there isn't THAT big of a difference in the end, but they need to renew Inzaghi, and Lautaro and Barella soon. There's not much fat besides Sensi and Cuadrado Almost everyone else besides the stars is extremely cheap. If that's the squad and you're still losing 100m a year because of debt financing and a lack of revenue growth then you have major problems going forward.

 

[brk]

We have additional sponsors that earn us additional revenues.
They lost a huge bunch of their fake Chinese sponsors after that economy defaulted. They haven't been able to replace-recover those.
The loss in UCL earnings and TV revenues won't be replaced in their financials by unearned Club World Cup earnings, and their sponsorship with Paramount was nowhere near the level as the one they had with Digibits.
So how are they suppose to make up for the revenues to push them into the black?
Squad costs going down by 15 to 20M does not cover for lost revenues in excess of 50M.

I think the Club world cup has really high guarnteed revenues of around 50m. It's a huge loss for us that we didn't make it.

 

[Deleted member 35916]

I agree they've been doing an amazing job of downsizing, but they still have a ways to go and I don't see much fat left to trim.

Why are you so focused on the trimming of fat? Why not focus on their on-field results? The same results that got them into Club World Cup which we didn't make.

They are getting a new shirt sponsor and their revenues will also grow. Remember, they are actually winning on the field. This is their 2nd Serie A in 4 years and last year they made CL final. A club like that will ALWAYS attract better sponsors than a club that has trimmed all its fat.

 

[Master Smurf]

Pioli was asked and answered:

That's really a shit question to ask him.

Why haven't they been asking more pertinent stuff the past few seasons.

Waste of space reporters.

 

[Shiby]

I agree they've been doing an amazing job of downsizing, but they still have a ways to go and I don't see much fat left to trim.

We were almost entirely fat. We literally replaced our entire squad, besides Calabria. Our superstar is on 6.5m a year gross, they have 7 players who are paid more than that, with Hakan being paid almost double.

It's around 28m difference a year, which isn't that big. They already lost Sanchez and that's 4.6m down, and Sensi is leaving this summer and that's a huge 11m, so there isn't THAT big of a difference in the end, but they need to renew Inzaghi, and Lautaro and Barella soon. There's not much fat besides Sensi and Cuadrado Almost everyone else besides the stars is extremely cheap. If that's the squad and you're still losing 100m a year because of debt financing and a lack of revenue growth then you have major problems going forward.

Are those your spreadsheets?

Do you just casually have financial spredsheets of football clubs on your laptop?

Not sure if thats impressive or insane

my guy playing the advanced version of football manager.

 

[brk]

Why are you so focused on the trimming of fat? Why not focus on their on-field results? The same results that got them into Club World Cup which we didn't make.

They are getting a new shirt sponsor and their revenues will also grow. Remember, they are actually winning on the field. This is their 2nd Serie A in 4 years and last year they made CL final. A club like that will ALWAYS attract better sponsors than a club that has trimmed all its fat.

True but the difference on the field between us is not that great. I will argue the true difference is that Pioli lost his way and Inzaghi has kept improving. That's the real difference on the field. Let's see what happens next season with (hopefully) a competent coach.

They're surviving and they keep finding ways of selling a big piece (like Onana) and still performing. That's an incredible achievement, similar to how we managed to build a title winning squad while reducing our squad costs significantly. They're both excellent sporting achievements but built the exact opposite ways. One allows for continued sustainable growth, while the other is done by literally mortgaging your future for instant success. If they fuck up and have a bad season like Napoli just did, they are probably going to flirt with bankruptcy. If we fuck up and not make the CL, it's not as painful. We have resilience, while they are betting the house every season.

 

[brk]

Are those your spreadsheets?

Do you just casually have financial spredsheets of football clubs on your laptop?

Not sure if thats impressive or insane

my guy playing the advanced version of football manager.

It's from Calcio Finanza. I only have my own spreadsheets for Milan.

 

[Ryo]

If you're doing a "us vs them" comparison, do one on the results on the field. It may shock you.

No one is saying they are as good financially as us but they're on their way. Every club will be on their way as it's unsustainable to be losing money year after year.

But haven't people given up on the whole "doom and gloom" scenarios on this forum? Last year it was Barca, now it's Inter. None of these clubs are going under. Everyone was screaming how Zhang is about to lose Inter and he did what I said would happen all along: he refinanced.

Barca, like Merda have kicked the can down the road.
Barca doing it in a manner that's more innovative than Merda.
They sold however many % of their future revenues to other parties. That revenue doesn't get to hit the pockets of Barca once earned, but goes directly to investors.
If their results slump, like they did this season, where is the attraction of investing in Barca's "future earnings" when you know it's just going to go down.
Barca have at least a bank of goodwill to pull from. But even that bank of goodwill will get depleted when results keep slipping.
Heck, it's still a mystery how they're planning to fund this year's summer mercato.

Not the same with Merda. They kicked the can down the road, but eventually they'll run out of collateral to cover any future loans.
They're also a perennial loss-making company, so selling "future revenues" doesn't have the same appeal as Barca, unless investors were hardcore Merda fans who don't mind losing money on their investments.
You say "on their way" but to what? Most companies with loses as large as Merda who went on their way ended up getting dropped down to Serie C or Serie D (Parma, Fiorentina, Napoli).
They can restart after they are relegated/bankrupt (in Fiorentina's case, the club ceased to exist), but it will not be from Serie A.

 

[Alo88]

His answer to why he played Thiaw and Gabbia in a high line was ‘to deny the opposition the dribbling”. I wonder what his explanation for why he played Calabria in midfield instead of Reijnders or Adli.

Diddi spoke about it. I will post the tactical part of that in an hour or so.

 

[Deleted member 35916]

True but the difference on the field between us is not that great. I will argue the true difference is that Pioli lost his way and Inzaghi has kept improving. That's the real difference on the field. Let's see what happens next season with (hopefully) a competent coach.

They're surviving and they keep finding ways of selling a big piece (like Onana) and still performing. That's an incredible achievement, similar to how we managed to build a title winning squad while reducing our squad costs significantly. They're both excellent sporting achievements but built the exact opposite ways. One allows for continued sustainable growth, while the other is done by literally mortgaging your future for instant success. If they fuck up and have a bad season like Napoli just did, they are probably going to flirt with bankruptcy. If we fuck up and not make the CL, we it's not as painful. We have resilience, while they are betting the house every season.

Are you forgetting that our owner also has a huge loan that has to be paid off?

But once again, why are you ignoring Inter's growth? Are their revenues not growing? What do you think making CL final one year, winning Serie A the following year and then being a part of Club World Cup the year after does to a clubs exposure?

Also, what do you mean "not as painful" if we don't make CL? What does "not as painful" mean in business terms? A very large part of our revenues is from CL participation.

 

[Qaas]

Bad man is finally gone

and he's taking his tree with him

OMGGG
IS IT OFFICIAL?

 

[Ryo]

I agree they've been doing an amazing job of downsizing, but they still have a ways to go and I don't see much fat left to trim.

We were almost entirely fat. We literally replaced our entire squad, besides Calabria. Our superstar is on 6.5m a year gross, they have 7 players who are paid more than that, with Hakan being paid almost double.

It's around 28m difference a year, which isn't that big. They already lost Sanchez and that's 4.6m down, and Sensi is leaving this summer and that's a huge 11m, so there isn't THAT big of a difference in the end, but they need to renew Inzaghi, and Lautaro and Barella soon. There's not much fat besides Sensi and Cuadrado Almost everyone else besides the stars is extremely cheap. If that's the squad and you're still losing 100m a year because of debt financing and a lack of revenue growth then you have major problems going forward.

Correa is going back to Merda if Marseille don't make the UCL, so more costs on their books.
Marseille are 10th in Ligue 1 and the only path for them is to win Europa.

 

[Deleted member 35916]

Barca, like Merda have kicked the can down the road.
Barca doing it in a manner that's more innovative than Merda.
They sold however many % of their future revenues to other parties. That revenue doesn't get to hit the pockets of Barca once earned, but goes directly to investors.
If their results slump, like they did this season, where is the attraction of investing in Barca's "future earnings" when you know it's just going to go down.
Barca have at least a bank of goodwill to pull from.

Not the same with Merda. They kicked the can down the road, but eventually they'll run out of collateral to cover any future loans.
They're also a perennial loss-making company, so selling "future revenues" doesn't have the same appeal as Barca, unless investors were hardcore Merda fans who don't mind losing money on their investments.
You say "on their way" but to what? Most companies with loses as large as Merda who went on their way ended up getting dropped down to Serie C or Serie D (Parma, Fiorentina, Napoli).
They can restart after they are relegated/bankrupt (in Fiorentina's case, the club ceased to exist), but it will not be from Serie A.

Barca still finished 2nd in La Liga. Advanced from their group. Isn't that a better result than we did this year? Barca will never NOT finish top 4.

Inter was supposed to be "done" next month when Oaktree takes over. That obviously won't happen so when are they going down now? Just wondering so I can bookmark the post.

 

[Ryo]

Barca still finished 2nd in La Liga. Advanced from their group. Isn't that a better result than we did this year? Barca will never NOT finish top 4.

Inter was supposed to be "done" next month when Oaktree takes over. That obviously won't happen so when are they going down now? Just wondering so I can bookmark the post.

Check how much money you earn from finishing 2nd in La Liga.
Nowhere near as lucrative as getting into the UCL semi's.
La Liga finances have the same structural problem as Serie A.
Just "prestige" won't earn you sponsorships if your club is doing poorly.
Milan's finances were down in the dumps for the last 10 to 15ish years because our results were dogshit.
They didn't pick up until the Elliot years.

Your skepticism is valid, but just because they kicked the can down the road by 3 years doesn't mean it's over.
Loans need to be paid, with compound interest at that. Can't help you if you're so short-sighted.

 

[Deleted member 35916]

Check how much money you earn from finishing 2nd in La Liga.
Nowhere near as lucrative as getting into the UCL semi's.

Your skepticism is valid, but just because they kicked the can down the road by 3 years doesn't mean it's over.
Loans need to be paid, with compound interest at that. Can't help you if you're so short-sighted.

You do realize that Gerry also has a very large loan to Elliott that needs to be paid off?

I'm not short sided I'm just pointing that nothing you guys have been saying is happening. Barca is doing fine, Inter is doing fine.

 

[brk]

Are you forgetting that our owner also has a huge loan that has to be paid off?

But once again, why are you ignoring Inter's growth? Are their revenues not growing? What do you think making CL final one year, winning Serie A the following year and then being a part of Club World Cup the year after does to a clubs exposure?

Also, what do you mean "not as painful" if we don't make CL? What does "not as painful" mean in business terms? A very large part of our revenues is from CL participation.

Where did I mention Inter's loan to Oaktree or whoever is taking on the new loan? The debt financing that's on Inter's books has nothing to do with that loan. Sure Gerry has a loan to repay, but that has nothing to do with AC Milan. The Oaktree loan also has nothing to do with Inter.

 

[Ryo]

You do realize that Gerry also has a very large loan to Elliott that needs to be paid off?

I'm not short sided I'm just pointing that nothing you guys have been saying is happening. Barca is doing fine, Inter is doing fine.

Gerry's loan is less of an issue for us because the worst we can do is Elliot takes back a portion of Milan as collateral.
We aren't being stripped for parts in that case, since we all are aware of what Elliot can/has done for Milan historically.
That's the difference between us and Barca/Merda.

Your insistence that you are right because "they're not dead yet" is short-sighted as they come.
They're on life support and just got a new injection of a new drug that may or may not help them.
Time will tell, but they're still on life support.

 

[Deleted member 35916]

Your insistence that you are right because "they're not dead yet" is short-sighted as they come.

Dude, they've been on life support for years. You guys have been writing this for almost a decade now.

It's that I'm short signed, it's just that I'm actually right. None of what you guys have been saying is happening or has happened. None.

 

[Ryo]

Dude, they've been on life support for years. You guys have been writing this for almost a decade now.

It's that I'm short signed, it's just that I'm actually right. None of what you guys have been saying is happening or has happened. None.

I rest my case.
They also said that Lehman was too big to fall. We all know where that went.
Rot from the inside can take decades, but eventually shit will hit the wrong fan and the entire house of cards comes tumbling down.

 

[brk]

Are you forgetting that our owner also has a huge loan that has to be paid off?

But once again, why are you ignoring Inter's growth? Are their revenues not growing? What do you think making CL final one year, winning Serie A the following year and then being a part of Club World Cup the year after does to a clubs exposure?

Also, what do you mean "not as painful" if we don't make CL? What does "not as painful" mean in business terms? A very large part of our revenues is from CL participation.

If we don't make the CL we lose out on potentially 70m a year, same as Inter. 70m hitting us in one year is painful. Inter, losing 170m in one year is catastrophic. We have room for some failure, they don't. I'm not even considering things like FFP since there's always ways around that. But they are living very dangerously and we are playing a much safer game. A lot of their bets have been winners though, but gamblers don't win all the time.

 

[Alo88]

Barca still finished 2nd in La Liga. Advanced from their group. Isn't that a better result than we did this year? Barca will never NOT finish top 4.

Inter was supposed to be "done" next month when Oaktree takes over. That obviously won't happen so when are they going down now? Just wondering so I can bookmark the post.

I admit I underestimated Marottas ability to keep rebuilding a competitive team out of thin air every summer. Wished we had him and not Galliani during our 2010s.

 

[brk]

Barca still finished 2nd in La Liga. Advanced from their group. Isn't that a better result than we did this year? Barca will never NOT finish top 4.

Inter was supposed to be "done" next month when Oaktree takes over. That obviously won't happen so when are they going down now? Just wondering so I can bookmark the post.

I never said Inter will be done if Oaktree take over. In fact I always said that's a scenario that's good for Serie A since they will most likely reorganize them the same way Elliott did with us. Zhang continuing their win at all costs strategy is what will eventually doom them.

 

[brk]

I admit I underestimated Marottas ability to keep rebuilding a competitive team out of thin air every summer. Wished we had him and not Galliani during our 2010s.

Me too. He's a wizard.

 

[Alo88]

Me too. He's a wizard.

Alongside Inzaghi, their true MVP.

 

[Deleted member 35916]

If we don't make the CL we lose out on potentially 70m a year, same as Inter. 70m hitting us in one year is painful. Inter, losing 170m in one year is catastrophic. We have room for some failure, they don't. I'm not even considering things like FFP since there's always ways around that. But they are living very dangerously and we are playing a much safer game. A lot of their bets have been winners though, but gamblers don't win all the time.

What interesting to me is that they're still finding ways to win. We can discuss their vs our finances all day, but on the field they've owned us for years now.

And why are they living dangerously now, that their squad costs and losses are considerably lower than when they were losing ~250 per year. They didn't go down then, why do you guys think they will go down now?

 

[Qaas]

According to Longo, Fonseca is a candidate for the post Pioli.

Who and who

 

[Deleted member 35916]

I never said Inter will be done if Oaktree take over. In fact I always said that's a scenario that's good for Serie A since they will most likely reorganize them the same way Elliott did with us. Zhang continuing their win at all costs strategy is what will eventually doom them.

You're ignoring the growth in their revenues once again. Winning on the field makes you more money.

 

[Qaas]

How do you guys feel about sarri?

We all loved father sarri
But he should’ve been here instead of pioli back then. Now its too late