The Rumour Commode XXXIX: A Cardinal Sin

[Kojak]

Is he a DM type or playmaker type? Would love to have an athletic and strong African DM fucking shit up in the middle of the field

Lol that's exactly what he is...he has a strong physique and excellent technique. Also, with a contract like that I expect him to be part of the first team within the next 2 seasons.

 

[abritcemeng]

If Pioli start pobega and brahim agains merda.. That will be ugly same as supercoppa

 

[Omer]

The Maldini era started off really well with analytics driven, undervalued players: Maignan, Theo, Bennacer, Kalulu, Tomori. With some known players sprinkled in (Tonali).

Somewhere along the line we decided to say screw analytics and go for obvious names everyone knew about/market opportunities - Aka lazy scouting: Bakayoko, Origi, Florenzi, CDK, Giroud, and now Zaniolo, Ziyech

I’m not sure why this happened but the strategy of unearthing high potential players seems to have been abandoned in favor of lazy buying

Not only that, but we seem to have deviated from our initial strategy of physically capable, athletic players which defined Maldini’s initial tenure

They scouted Julian Alavarez. Elliott only gave them 4-5 mil for Lazetic. The also scouted Botman and Enzo F. Again not enough funds available.

CDK could still become v good like Leao, Tonali. And Origi, Florenzi, Giroud were super cheap / free transfers. Elliott were spending more when Milan bought Theo, Bennacer, Leao...

 

[Alo88]

https://football-italia.net/more-details-emerge-on-redbird-purchase-of-milan-amid-chelsea-comparison/:

It is also reported that Elliott would receive a bonus if RedBird were to sell Milan on at a higher price than they paid for it.

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/what-redbird-investment-ac-milan-23971679:

It was then reported that RedBird are nearing a 1.3bn euro investment in the club, a deal that could eventually rise to 1.8bn in bonuses. Reuters reported that RedBird declined to comment.

Thanks for the sources, very appreciated.

But I don't see those 500M confirmed neither. Liverpoolecho's claim that the deal could reach 1,8B with bonuses never got confirmed. It also doesn't state the conditions to trigger said bonuses. It's an article that was published on 20th of May on top of that, way before the closing in August. Who knows how much has changed since then?

I find the source from Calcio and Finanza more believable. Both because I know them better and because of the timing of their report. They too talk about bonuses, but they can only be triggered "if RedBird were to sell Milan on at a higher price than they paid for it", which is no given at all and it's not saying how much bonuses were agreed. So I still think Elliott would have gone for the sure upfront cash and that Investcorp, if they are financially as potent as media make them seem, could have easily afford to go that extramile.

Evenmore when I continue reading that article. It says that the rumors about Redbird getting a 600M vendor loan on astronomical 15% interest can be debunked. In fact they only took a "€200-300M vendor role, which is not an unusual process and the interest rate is 6%". On top of that, they write that the "US financial expert site Forbes maintains in its analysis that the pending sale of AC Milan is a better bargain than the recent purchase of Chelsea FC".

If that's to be believed and getting Milan was such a bargain, then I really don't believe that Investcorp budged from going that little extramile with offering an additional 100-200M to what Redbird was offering, straight upfront and in cash, with no eventual "but only if things go well" scenarios. And apparently they even offered Elliott to keep minority stakes - so that doesn't seemed to have been the issue neither.

 

[Congo Powers]

It's so annoying when we're in trouble and there's always the "I'm-a-better fan/cooler-than-you" types who try to grandstand about how above it all they are.

“When we’re in trouble” …

 

[milanator]

The Maldini era started off really well with analytics driven, undervalued players: Maignan, Theo, Bennacer, Kalulu, Tomori. With some known players sprinkled in (Tonali).

Somewhere along the line we decided to say screw analytics and go for obvious names everyone knew about/market opportunities - Aka lazy scouting: Bakayoko, Origi, Florenzi, CDK, Giroud, and now Zaniolo, Ziyech

I’m not sure why this happened but the strategy of unearthing high potential players seems to have been abandoned in favor of lazy buying

Not only that, but we seem to have deviated from our initial strategy of physically capable, athletic players which defined Maldini’s initial tenure

Ibra, Kjaer and to some extend Giroud only unlocked the squad, Kjaer and Giroud also probably fall under undervalued looking at what Everton offered Giroud. Even Origi on like 6m (that would be like 10m transfer fee and 2m wage under normal circumstances) and Florenzi on 4,5m annual costs are not expensive.

CDK we overpaid 5-10m for (which was obvious in summer already) and is the only transfer so far that really breaks the pattern imo.

Ziyech imo largely is a media/fan rumor, not something concrete. Zaniolo for 30-35m would be another CDK like overpayment, if we get him for 15, maybe 20m now it is a different story.

 

[Alo88]

French league is even smaller than Serie A! And PSG is now one of the biggest clubs in the world. In fact Milan was the first choice of the Emir of Qatar. He offered 1 bil to Berlusconi in 2007-2008. But Berlusconi refused.

The Newcastle deals shows that just because you don't want to pay a huge price to buy a club, that doesn't automatically mean you won't spent big on transfers. I think you were saying the opposite: that if Investcorp doesn't want to overpay for Milan, then why would they invest big in transfers? Saudis didn't overpay plus they have been big in the transfer market.

PSG isn't a good example IMO. There are a lot of voices how Sarkozy pressured Platini - back then the president of UEFA - to let the Qatari play a huge important role in world football. And that's exactly what they got: a world championship and the international right of CL in the hands of the very same man who's sitting in the executive committee of UEFA and who's president of PSG - of all clubs. We all know they have card blanche to do whatever they want. Who's gonna sue them, their own president?

Newcastle I think is a better example for your argument. But then again, I rarely see those things happening outside EPL (and PSG).

 

[Omer]

How come none of these big spenders offered to buy us when we were sold?

And I don't think potential investors just look at whether the league is bigger or smaller when deciding whether it's a friendly destination for their investment. I would be happy to eat my L when a big sugar daddy take over and start splashing in Serie A though.


That's not the point I made though. My point is if they didn't want to "overpay" for Milan, they wouldn't want to overpay for transfers. Overpay meaning dealing with FFP fines and potential missing out in european competitions which set them back more financially.

Newcastle is in a bigger market league that has more financial leeway, so they can spend that much as a relegation team and even whether the storm in the English Championship whereas if they have that type of market and god forbid it doesn't pay off (like Li), we'd be financially in the shitter and will cost them more money to fix.

How come none of these big spenders offered to buy us when we were sold? Well that's the news that Investcorp wanted to buy and wanted to be a big spender! Isn't that what we are talking about or am I confused??


I'm thinking overpaying is more about paying much more than you think something is worth. If you spend 70-80 mil on one player but he his a 70-80 mil worth player that isn't overpaying. If you buy a club for 1.6 billion, but you think it's worth 1.1 billion then that's overpaying. A lot of big spenders don't might the spending for things that are worth it. At the same time they don't want to get ripped off!!

And no one is missing CL because of FFP. Milan decided to settle with UEFA and miss Europa League because the deal was worth it for a B grade tournament like Europa League. There isn't a single club ever banned from CL for breaking FFP!

Plus Milan is good with FFP now. They still have more room to spend without breaking FFP. Maybe not 200 mil in 1 season but definitely more than these stingy fucks Redbird.

 

[Omer]

PSG isn't a good example IMO. There are a lot of voices how Sarkozy pressured Platini - back then the president of UEFA - to let the Qatari play a huge important role in world football. And that's exactly what they got: a world championship and the international right of CL in the hands of the very same man who's sitting in the executive committee of UEFA and who's president of PSG - of all clubs. We all know they have card blanche to do whatever they want. Who's gonna sue them, their own president?

Newcastle I think is a better example for your argument. But then again, I rarely see those things happening outside EPL (and PSG).

With PSG, I was just giving an example of how you can grow a club really big in a league that is smaller than EPL. If Berlusconi had agreed to sell Milan to Qataris, then Milan would have one the biggest revenues right now. They only bought PSG after Berlusconi's refusal.

Qataris can still exert influence over the French govt / Platini without owning a club in France. Regarding the WC, reports are that Qatar agreed to buy billions worth of French fighter jets for France's vote / support in the WC bidding

 

[leaf]

“When we’re in trouble” …

Glad it fell in your garden. Go on and plant that shit

Laughs when we're winless in 5 conceding 15 goals. "Hey look at me, I'm so cool I laugh at ppl who are concerned. They the REAL clowns"

 

[Congo Powers]

Glad it fell in your garden. Go on and plant that shit

Laughs when we're winless in 5 conceding 15 goals. "Hey look at me, I'm so cool I laugh at ppl who are concerned. They the REAL clowns"

Me
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You

 

[Master Smurf]

I see. Probably just like the story spun out of thin air about "rottura totale" between Maldini and Leao.

You don't find it suspicious that such things come out days before a derby? Or that such sensational headlines are not followed by any explanation of how these figures are made up?

Come on, nobody can be that naive.

Once again I think you didnt understand me
Yes - these are stories of no / little accuracy are dropped to gain views / likes at the most opportune time.

If Milan was flying high and CDK playing like a legend with Tata saving everything like Mike reincarnated - nobody is going to seek out comments or write a story about the entity that didnt purchase us.
Your post wasnt some revelation - we know how these things work - part and parcel of the business.

 

[Alo88]

With PSG, I was just giving an example of how you can grow a club really big in a league that is smaller than EPL. If Berlusconi had agreed to sell Milan to Qataris, then Milan would have one the biggest revenues right now. They only bought PSG after Berlusconi's refusal.

Qataris can still exert influence over the French govt / Platini without owning a club in France. Regarding the WC, reports are that Qatar agreed to buy billions worth of French fighter jets for France's vote / support in the WC bidding

I agree. But the fact remains that the president of PSG, Nasser Al-Khelaifi, is also the CEO of beIN Sport, who holds the international TV rights of Champions League, and member of UEFAs executive committee.

What I'm saying is he and his club are basically untouchable. Maybe that could have been us if Silvio agreed to sell back in the 2000s. But I doubt that nowadays it's possible to replicate that scenario outside EPL. We tried with Li, and UEFA was right there to punish our asses. Investcorp doesn't strike me as the group to do that neither because as I said in my other post, they couldn't even outbid Redbird in a deal that Forbes described as "the better bargain than buying Chelsea FC".

 

[Alo88]

Once again I think you didnt understand me
Yes - these are stories of no / little accuracy are dropped to gain views / likes at the most opportune time.

If Milan was flying high and CDK playing like a legend with Tata saving everything like Mike reincarnated - nobody is going to seek out comments or write a story about the entity that didnt purchase us.
Your post wasnt some revelation - we know how these things work - part and parcel of the business.

Yeah but then why accusing me and brk of betraying our principles and playing spokesman for Elliott? I've never changed my stances towards news reports coming up with headlines and sensational numbers without context and explanations. And given how some were ready to jump on Elliott and Redbird I think it might indeed be a relevation for some at least. Why pointing the finger at me and brk then?

 

[Jivara]

So why didn't they pay more than RedBird to buy Milan? Why didn't they match Gerry's offer? Pay Elliott however much they're going to make from RedBird in interest on the vendor loan and then buy Milan. If they can't outbid Gerry, what makes you think they would have spent 300-400m on the market?

Maybe they did not like the way Elliott were doing business.

Or maybe they did not value the club an extra 350m.

You're mixing two things, to invest 350 into the transfer market is not the same as to pay an additional 350 for something that you would value for less

 

[Omer]

Thanks for the sources, very appreciated.

But I don't see those 500M confirmed neither. Liverpoolecho's claim that the deal could reach 1,8B with bonuses never got confirmed. It also doesn't state the conditions to trigger said bonuses. It's an article that was published on 20th of May on top of that, way before the closing in August. Who knows how much has changed since then?

I find the source from Calcio and Finanza more believable. Both because I know them better and because of the timing of their report. They too talk about bonuses, but they can only be triggered "if RedBird were to sell Milan on at a higher price than they paid for it", which is no given at all and it's not saying how much bonuses were agreed. So I still think Elliott would have gone for the sure upfront cash and that Investcorp, if they are financially as potent as media make them seem, could have easily afford to go that extramile.

Evenmore when I continue reading that article. It says that the rumors about Redbird getting a 600M vendor loan on astronomical 15% interest can be debunked. In fact they only took a "€200-300M vendor role, which is not an unusual process and the interest rate is 6%". On top of that, they write that the "US financial expert site Forbes maintains in its analysis that the pending sale of AC Milan is a better bargain than the recent purchase of Chelsea FC".

If that's to be believed and getting Milan was such a bargain, then I really don't believe that Investcorp budged from going that little extramile with offering an additional 100-200M to what Redbird was offering, straight upfront and in cash, with no eventual "but only if things go well" scenarios. And apparently they even offered Elliott to keep minority stakes - so that doesn't seemed to have been the issue neither.

Here's another report re the bonus / payout: https://acmilan.theoffside.com/2022...rchase-ac-milan-news-1-3-billion-elliott-news

Il Sole 24 Ore were reporting that RedBird Capital are close to an agreement with Elliott Management to purchase AC Milan for 1.3 billion euros with potential bonuses taking the deal to 1.8 billion euros over the coming years. The same outlet via MilanNews.it are now reporting that Elliott in addition could keep a minority stake in the business.

Bloomberg are now reporting that a preliminary agreement is in place between RedBird and Elliot at the stated 1.3 billion euros for the club and confirmation should arrive next week. The 500 million euro earn-out is a significant factor in favour of RedBird and Elliot will remain as a minority shareholder for a transitional period.


And the sale agreement with all the terms was signed quite early, around May / June. Redbird took a few months to close the deal that was signed.

Re the loan, I think at first they were going to take 300 mil loan, but then they ended taking around 600 mil. Maybe they found it difficult to raise funds and then increased the loan amount.

 

[Jivara]

Investcorp =/= Saudi PIF.

I thought MBS was also involved with Investcorp

 

[Master Smurf]

Sky: Saelemaekers and Pobega expected to win position battles and start vs. Inter

It is two days until AC Milan take on their city rivals Inter in the Derby della Madonnina, and some indications are arriving on how the team might line up.

sempremilan.com

@brk CDK wasn’t even in the “runoff” for the right wing spot, it was apparently between Messias, Saele, And Diaz (giant LOL).

Is this the final straw towards your #PioliOut migration?

They never seen him as RW but still Brk and Sam live in hope

 

[Ash]

I thought MBS was also involved with Investcorp

Think Mubadala (UAE) owns a share in Investcorp

 

[Omer]

I thought MBS was also involved with Investcorp

https://gulfbusiness.com/saudi-weal...ment-in-800m-middle-east-infrastructure-fund/

The Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund chaired by the Crown Prince, has agreed to commit up to a fifth of a planned $800m Middle East infrastructure fund being established by Aberdeen Standard Investments and Investcorp.
The Aberdeen Standard Investcorp Infrastructure Partners fund has received the pledge of as much as $160m from the PIF, as the wealth fund is known, along with another $90m commitment from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, according to a statement Thursday. The rest of the financing is expected to come from investors including pension funds, insurance companies, endowments, family offices and private clients, it said.

​

Aberdeen and Investcorp announced the fund two years ago with a view to channel investment into the Middle East’s health care, education and utilities industries. Former UK Defense Secretary Michael Fallon was appointed chairman of the fund last month.
“Today’s uncertain and challenging economic environment has created a gap between the need to develop or upgrade critical infrastructure and the resources available for such projects,” said Investcorp co-CEO Hazem Ben-Gacem.
Saudi Arabia is increasingly trying to push expenditure on new infrastructure projects out of direct spending from the Finance Ministry as it looks to narrow the budget deficit. The PIF itself is set to spend $40bn a year domestically over the next five years, with much of those outlays expected to go toward large new infrastructure and tourism-related projects.

Big player
The $430bn PIF is also becoming more important as a source of capital for fund managers in the Middle East as it embarks on a plan to support the Saudi economy’s diversification away from a reliance on oil sales. It agreed to be anchor investor in a $300m private credit fund managed by NBK Capital Partners in February, and has also established a $1.1bn fund of funds to support venture capital firms investing in the kingdom.
The infrastructure fund is part of Investcorp’s plans to boost its assets under management to $50bn. It’s also planning to begin raising a $500m Saudi investment fund later this year.
Investcorp is also currently raising a $1bn North American private equity fund to do bigger buyouts there, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg in March. The private equity firm is currently in the process of delisting from the Bahrain stock exchange.



Both PIF ( Saudi govt fund ) and Mubadla ( Abu Dhabi fund ) are investors in Investcorp

 

[Master Smurf]

Yeah but then why accusing me and brk of betraying our principles and playing spokesman for Elliott? I've never changed my stances towards news reports coming up with headlines and sensational numbers without context and explanations. And given how some were ready to jump on Elliott and Redbird I think it might indeed be a relevation for some at least. Why pointing the finger at me and brk then?

Because of the tone in which your posts were written - and it wasnt just me, hell I wasnt even the first to point it out.

I even said so in a reply to Brk but hey no biggie.

 

[Hitchens]

A lot more?

we're talking about two games here.

Yes, but including him here is a signal they consider him fit to be a part of the team, IE more Serie A apps as well

 

[brk]

The Maldini era started off really well with analytics driven, undervalued players: Maignan, Theo, Bennacer, Kalulu, Tomori. With some known players sprinkled in (Tonali).

Somewhere along the line we decided to say screw analytics and go for obvious names everyone knew about/market opportunities - Aka lazy scouting: Bakayoko, Origi, Florenzi, CDK, Giroud, and now Zaniolo, Ziyech

I’m not sure why this happened but the strategy of unearthing high potential players seems to have been abandoned in favor of lazy buying

Not only that, but we seem to have deviated from our initial strategy of physically capable, athletic players which defined Maldini’s initial tenure

This isn’t accurate. Nothing changed. Adli and CDK were the darlings of analytics nerds. Even Vranckx was an outlier on a lot of metrics. The rest were ‘opportunities’ with older players for free, to add leadership qualities and experience.

 

[Qaas]

Investcorp sounds like the antagonist firms in superhero movie

 

[Jivara]

@Curupira

I seen Cala play CM/DM... guy's like a chihuahua biting at the feet of whoever has the ball.

I honestly think it would be better for him to play more centrally. He's probably too short for CB but a DM might be alright. I don't see him evolving into a better RB than what he is.

 

[stilouri]

Milan, listen to MFO CEO Villani: 'We guaranteed 300-400 million euros to strengthen the team on the transfer market'​

The Milan prosecutor's office investigates the sale of AC Milan by Elliott to RedBird. In the papers there is also the reconstruction of the negotiation that began in November 2021 and fell through in May 2022 with the Arab fund Investcorp (based in Bahrain) together with the investment platform MFO Multi Family Office Equity Partners (based in New York and present among investors of the Saudi royal family, with Saudi Crown MFO). The buyers invested the same amount (1.2 billion euros) in cash without any loan from the seller. The Singer family preferred Gerry Cardinale, to whom they lent around 600 million euros, at an interest rate of 42 million a year.


RedBird has also left the Singer fund a substantial say in the corporate decisions of the AC Milan club, starting with the austerity line on the market.


The Italian-American financier Carmine Villani, managing director of MFO and protagonist of the first negotiation, explained to the newspaper La Repubblica on newsstands today: "I can't go into details, but I can confirm that our consortium had undertaken both to acquire all the majority shares in Milan and to guarantee the subsequent investment on the market of 300-400 million euros , to immediately bring the team back to the highest level in Europe, like its history he deserves. It was all 'equity'. If Elliott had wanted to, we would have left him minority interests."

if it's true, Elliott was the biggest curse for our club . I hope it's not true (

 

[Panache]

Why would Elliott prefer to bet on very specific scenarios who could or couldn't happen when there was someone else offering straight cash and was (apparently) financially strongly enough to outbid Redbird even with the interest rates included?

This is an unserious question. Who wins a bid isn't determined by who has the most money. This isn't an auction. In this case it was determined by who's desperate enough to accept the terms put forward by the seller.

Make no mistakes, Elliot chose Redbird because they stand to make MORE money from this deal than the Investcorp one. So I don't blame them for trying to maximize their profits. Either Redbird come up with all the funds needed to buy the club outright, or Elliot pockets the down payment and repossesses the club (which they can then "sell" AGAIN).

With a collateral like a football club on the line, a vulture fund like Elliot will always prefer a buyer willing to agree to their ridiculous terms. They're greedy and if they can double or triple dip on their investment, THEY WILL. The Investcorp deal was just way too straightforward for them. Investcorp offered them exactly what the club was worth in cash and they simply turned it down.

As a Milan fan, I say FUCK ELLIOT. Investcorp would have taken us to the next level.

 

[Wild]

There is so much unknown about the Maldini signing and the negotiation behind it that for me it cannot be the "clearest sign" of anything.

I agree with you regarding the caution around spending for a manager you don't see with you long term. I do see Redbird at least matching previous Elliot spendings and not the 50m window we saw last summer and the 350k one this winter.

However, I don't see them spending the necessary amount for us to be a big player in UCL in the timeframe you provided and I don't consider that necessary for me to see this period as successful. We can agree to disagree on this point

Thats true.
We should always look at the full half of the cup.
Like if we had all that money we wouldnt have signed CDK.

 

[leaf]

Me
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You

Yes I get that’s what you always say. Any more nuggets of wisdom your highness?

 

[Wild]

Sky: Saelemaekers and Pobega expected to win position battles and start vs. Inter

It is two days until AC Milan take on their city rivals Inter in the Derby della Madonnina, and some indications are arriving on how the team might line up.

sempremilan.com

Skills wise something like